Now reading:

Three questions to navigate the current Middle East crisis

Three questions to navigate the current Middle East crisis

  • 02 November 2023
  • By OCBC Wealth Management
  • 10 mins read
  • The Israel-Gaza conflict has introduced short-term uncertainties and investors should position defensively and remain invested to avoid being out of the market when the recovery comes around.
  • We do not expect the current tensions to lead to a sustained rise in oil prices in the long term for now.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated: At the time of writing, tensions along the Israel-Gaza border are at risk of escalating further, while Russia-Ukraine as well as US-China tensions show no signs of abating.

So far, financial markets have not reacted as negatively to the Israel-Gaza conflict as expected, although there was still a flight-to-safety to safe-haven assets such as Gold and US Treasuries. As with previous Middle East crises, crude oil prices have also risen due to fears of a potential disruption in supply.

We address three questions that you may have regarding these uncertain market conditions.

  1. How should we position our portfolio now?

    We continue to advocate an overall defensive stance going into the end of 2023, given the uncertain global economic growth outlook and elevated geopolitical risks.

    While near-term risks remain high, the negative effects on financial markets, especially equities, do not last for very long (Figure 1) and investors should remain appropriately invested to avoid being out of the market when the recovery comes around.

    We currently prefer Japanese equities, the Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Utilities sectors, as well as quality companies that pay consistent dividends. In fixed income, investors should hold more US Treasuries and Developed Markets Investment Grade bonds as they are more resilient in the event of a US recession while providing income to tide you through.

    Holding some gold within your investment portfolio is also a form of “portfolio insurance” if you expect a US recession.

    With geopolitical tensions remaining high, opportunistic investors can also consider investing in the aerospace and defence industries which will benefit from increased defence spending.

  2. Will the Israel-Gaza conflict spread?

    There are concerns that militia groups in Lebanon, Syria and even Iran could get involved in the conflict.

    The impact to investors will be mainly in crude oil prices and its contribution to global inflation. The more Middle Eastern countries get involved, the greater the risk to crude oil prices which can lead to higher inflation.

    Persistently high inflation will force the major central banks to keep raising interest rates, which will be negative for both equities and bonds. While we do not expect such a scenario at this time, we will continue to monitor the latest developments as they unfold.

  3. How have crude oil prices reacted in past crises?

    Firstly, neither Israel nor its direct neighbours are large oil producers. Thus, the current conflict has no direct impact on the supply of crude oil. Such geopolitical shocks to the oil market also do not tend to persist, with oil prices coming down six to twelve months afterwards (Figure 2).

    However, the oil market is beginning to price in a risk premium to account for the rising geopolitical risk in the region. Prior to the attack, markets had been expecting a normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a resulting increase in Saudi oil output as a goodwill gesture.

    The attack on Israel has complicated this arrangement as Saudi Arabia is now under pressure to stand alongside its Palestinian allies. However, if Saudi Arabia proceeds with the Israel arrangement, it will be a positive boost for markets.

Bottom line:

  • The Israel-Gaza conflict has introduced short-term uncertainties and investors should position defensively and remain invested to avoid being out of the market when the recovery comes around.
  • Opportunistic investors can consider taking positions in the aerospace and defence industries as countries raise defence spending amid elevated geopolitical tensions.

Products you may consider:

Unit Trust

abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend FundNEW

  • The fund will invest in the abrdn SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend Fund. This underlying fund invests at least two-thirds of the fund’s assets in equities and equity-related securities of companies
  • The fund aims to provide income and capital appreciation by investing in the underlying fund. The underlying fund has a historical, annualised dividend of up to 6% p.a.^, as at end September 2023, according to Bloomberg data
  • A well-diversified portfolio including value and growth stocks, across various sectors and countries
  • Enjoy an 0% sales charge when you invest from now till 10 November 2023. Limited tranche only+

PIMCO Income Fund

  • Designed for investors who seek steady income with a historical annualised dividend yield of up to 6.53% p.a.#
  • The fund taps into global bond markets with an overall average investment grade credit rating of AA-
  • A consistent track record with resilience during periods of volatility

^Past performance and dividend yield figures are in reference to abrdn SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend Fund. Past performance figures do not reflect future performance.

#Bloomberg, as of end-September 2023. Past performance figures do not reflect future performance.

+The 0% sales charge tranche will close on 10 November 2023 or once subscription quota hits. Realisation charge amounting to 2% of the redemption proceeds applies if the fund is sold within 2 years from inception date.

OCBC RoboInvest

Stable US Consumer Giants

The Stable US Consumer Giants portfolio provides diversified exposure to selected stocks with relatively lower volatility in the Consumer Sector in the US. The Consumer sector provides relatively steady and predictable growth across business cycles and thus potential for steady capital appreciation.

Stable US Healthcare Giants

The Stable US Healthcare Giants portfolio provides diversified exposure to selected stocks with relatively lower volatility in the Healthcare Sector in the US. The Healthcare sector is likely to experience steady growth in demand for medical products and services due to rising economic affluence as well as an ageing population, which should provide potential for steady capital appreciation in the long-term.

Precious Metal

Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge in periods of market uncertainty. Diversify your portfolio with OCBC’s Precious Metals Account, which lets you buy as little as 0.01 ounces of gold for less than S$35. Investments are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. T&Cs apply.

Important Information

  1. The content in this report is either written by OCBC Wealth Management or a third party commissioned by Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (“OCBC Bank”, “us”, “we” or “our”). Some of the contents in this report are summaries of the investment ideas and recommendations set out in research reports disseminated by OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations ("OCBC Group"). For any interest that OCBC Group might have in the securities and/or issuers of the securities, you may request for a copy of the relevant report from your relationship manager.
  2. Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this document are those of the third parties identified, and do not represent views of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited.
  3. This information is intended for general circulation and / or discussion purposes only. It does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person.
  4. Before you make an investment, please seek advice from your Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
  5. If you choose not to do so, you should consider if the investment product is suitable for you and conduct your own assessments and due diligence on the investment product.
  6. We are not making an offer, solicit to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument, enter into any transaction or participate in any trading or investment strategy with you through this document. Nothing in this document shall be deemed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.
  7. No representation or warranty whatsoever in respect of any information provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice.
  8. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein.
  9. Investments are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures, predictions or projections are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance.
  10. Any reference to a company, financial product or asset class is used for illustrative purposes and does not represent our recommendation in any way.
  11. The information in and contents of this document may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank’s written consent.
  12. OCBC Bank, its related companies, and their respective directors and/or employees (collectively “Related Persons”) may, or might have in the future, interests in the investment products or the issuers mentioned herein. Such interests include effecting transactions in such investment products, and providing broking, investment banking and other financial services to such issuers. OCBC Bank and its Related Persons may also be related to, and receive fees from, providers of such investment products.
  13. You must read the Offer Document/Indicative Term Sheet/Product Highlight Sheet before deciding whether or not to purchase the investment product, copies of which may be obtained from your relationship manager.
  14. Any hyperlink to any third party article, or other website or webpage (including any websites or webpages owned, operated and maintained by third parties) is for informational purposes only and for your convenience only and is not an endorsement or verification of any such article, website or webpage by OCBC Bank and should only be accessed at your own risk. OCBC Bank does not review the contents of any such articles, website or webpage, and shall not be liable to any person for the same.
  15. Investors should note that there are necessarily limitations and difficulties in using any graph, chart, formula or other device to determine whether or not, or if so, when to, make an investment.
  16. Where the contents have not been identified as summaries of the investment ideas and recommendations set out in research reports disseminated by the OCBC Group, the information is not intended to constitute research analysis or recommendation and should not be treated as such.
  17. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Collective Investment Schemes

  1. A copy of the prospectus of each fund is available and may be obtained from the fund manager or any of its approved distributors. Potential investors should read the prospectus for details on the relevant fund before deciding whether to subscribe for, or purchase units in the fund.
  2. The value of the units in the funds and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Please refer to the prospectus of the relevant fund for the name of the fund manager and the investment objectives of the fund.
  3. Investment involves risks. Past performance figures do not reflect future performance.
  4. Any reference to a company, financial product or asset class is used for illustrative purposes and does not represent our recommendation in any way.
  5. For funds that are listed on an approved exchange, investors cannot redeem their units of those funds with the manager, or may only redeem units with the manager under certain specified conditions. The listing of the units of those funds on any approved exchange does not guarantee a liquid market for the units.
  6. The indicative distribution rate may not be achieved and is not an indication, forecast, or projection of the future performance of the Fund.

Foreign Currency

  1. Foreign currency investments or deposits are subject to inherent exchange rate fluctuation that may provide opportunities and risks. Consequently, exchange rate fluctuations may affect the value of your foreign currency investments or deposits.
  2. Earning on foreign currency investments or deposits may change depending on the exchange rates prevalent at the time of their maturity if you choose to convert.
  3. Exchange controls may apply to certain foreign currencies from time to time.
  4. Any pre-termination costs will be taken and deducted from your deposit directly and without notice.

Global Equities Disclaimer

  1. Dividend growth is not guaranteed, nor are companies in which you invest obliged to pay dividends;
  2. Companies may go bankrupt rendering the original investment valueless;
  3. Equity markets may decline in value;
  4. Corporate earnings and financial markets may be volatile;
  5. If there is no recognised market for equities, then these may be difficult to sell and accurate information about their value may be hard to obtain;
  6. Smaller company investments may be difficult to sell if there is little liquidity in the market for such equities and there may be substantial differences between the buying price and the selling price;
  7. Equities on overseas markets may involve different risks to equities issued in Singapore;
  8. With regards to investments in overseas companies, foreign exchange rates may move in an unfavourable direction affecting adversely the valuation of investments in base currency terms.

Cross-Border Marketing Disclaimer

General: The document provided by Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore (“OCBC Singapore”) is for general information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation by OCBC Singapore to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into a transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without OCBC Singapore’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject OCBC Singapore and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.

Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.

Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to Indonesian citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. In compliance with the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regulation of the Indonesian Financial Service Authority No. 30/POJK.04/2019, the investment product in this document may not be distributed in Indonesian or to any Indonesian citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents. The investment product in this document has not been and will not be registered or filed with to the Indonesian Financial Service Authority.

Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature.

Malaysia: OCBC Singapore does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by OCBC Singapore to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where OCBC Singapore has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, OCBC Singapore may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product.

Myanmar: The provision of any products and services by OCBC Singapore shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with OCBC Singapore.

Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 184/2019), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein.

Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein.

Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan.

Thailand: Please note that none of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein is approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of OCBC Singapore or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by OCBC Singapore or any other entities in OCBC Singapore’s group in Thailand.

The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines.

Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): OCBC Singapore is not a financial institution licensed in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") or the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the DIFC or the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. The deposits referred to in this communication are maintained with Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore (“OCBC Singapore”). OCBC Singapore is incorporated in Singapore and is authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Certain deposits offered by OCBC Singapore are covered by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Scheme, subjected to conditions. The bank’s paid up capital and reserves exceeds SGD 1.5 billion – further information about the capital position of OCBC Singapore may be found at OCBC Bank's website: > OCBC Group > Investors > Annual report and AGM.

United Arab Emirates (UAE): The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. OCBC Singapore is not authorised to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates.

United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to US persons.