Top Equity Ideas

July 2017
Equity Ideas to Grow Your Wealth

We only share with you stock ideas that we are convinced of ourselves.

What you are about to see in this publication is a distillation of the top equity calls from the research teams at OCBC Group, comprising 16 highly experienced equity analysts.

Our equity analysts offer independent research views on a wide range of equities through regular company visits and management meetings.

With good access to listed companies and key industry sources, the research team conducts fundamental, technical and quantitative analyses on companies, while regularly reviewing the stocks covered.

As you can see, we're going to great lengths to help you grow your wealth. And we hope you will find the insights we offer in this publication useful.

Amazon.com Inc.
Dominates online retail and remains an aggressive player

Amazon is still the most disruptive force to emerge on the retail scene all these while. Traditional retailers find it hard to match its competitive advantage, and Amazon looks likely to maintain its competitive position with an aggressive push into apparel and footwear. Its acquisition of Whole Foods marks a significant inroad into the grocery category. With more than half of the world's Internet users coming from developing markets, Amazon has promising international growth opportunities, including Europe, Japan and India. Amazon’s more than 300 million global active users and recent fulfilment infrastructure, technology, and content investments are likely to help buffer any uneven margin expansion trajectory brought on by global logistics and content investments, new sources of competition or physical store aspirations. Amazon’s web services products may face competition from well-capitalized peers like Microsoft and Google, potentially exposing it to more aggressive price competition and longer-term margin pressures but Kindle products and complementary devices like Fire TV, Dash, Echo, and Alexa represent intriguing customer acquisition and retention tools that capitalize on the shift to digital media while simultaneously promoting Prime memberships and AWS' various capabilities.

Our forecasts
Potential Upside:
24.33%
Target Price:
US$1200.00
About the company
Current Price
US$965.14
Market Capitalisation
US$462.68b
Average Daily Volume (30 Days)
4.13m
Bloomberg Ticker
AMZN US

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

 

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The company products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products. Amazon offers personalized shopping services, web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

52-Week Price Movement
52-Week Price Movement

52-Week High: US$1011.3400

52-Week Low: US$719.07000

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

Key financial highlights
 
2014
2015
2016
Revenue (US$ m)
88,988
107,006
135,987
Net Income (US$ m)
-241
596
2,371
Earnings Per Share (US$)
-0.52
1.25
4.90
PER (X)
772.1
197.0
Return on Equity (%)
-2.4
4.9
14.5

For the Financial Year ended 31 December

 

The contents in this page are a summary of the investment ideas and recommendations set out in the Morningstar Equity Analyst Report.

Citigroup Inc.
Recapitalized, refocused under new management

Having teetered on the edge more than once, Citigroup may finally be on the road to rehabilitation. The bank has raised capital, shed assets and bulked up its board of directors and management team with experienced bankers. Management’s focus on buybacks over dividends also provides much needed flexibility. The bank is leveraged to the rise of Asia, Latin America and other emerging markets, while its competitors struggle with lacklustre loan demand in the U.S. and Western Europe. The tag “too big to fail” due to complex operations spanning several continents may still be there, but investors are assured of better sleep over the next decade. The culture that led to Citigroup’s bailout will not be easy to change and the bank may still be too big to manage successfully but Citigroup’s shrinking balance sheet, falling expenses and a lighter regulatory environment provide a perfect combination for capital return over the next five years.

Our forecasts
Potential Upside:
9.42%
Target Price:
US$74.00
About the company
Current Price
US$67.63
Market Capitalisation
US$186.2b
Average Daily Volume (30 Days)
17.69m
Bloomberg Ticker
C US

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

 

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

52-Week Price Movement
52-Week Price Movement

52-Week High: US$68.4500

52-Week Low: US$41.2900

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

Key financial highlights
 
2014
2015
2016
Revenue (US$ m)
76,882
76,354
69,875
Net Income (US$ m)
7,313
17,242
14,912
Earnings Per Share (US$)
2.20
5.40
4.72
PER (X)
30.7
12.5
14.3
Return on Equity (%)
3.4
8.0
6.6

For the Financial Year ended 31 December

 

The contents in this page are a summary of the investment ideas and recommendations set out in the Morningstar Equity Analyst Report.

Starbucks Corporation
More than a specialty coffee retail story

Starbucks is poised for top-line growth and margin expansion through menu innovations, sustainable cost advantages and evolution into a diversified retail consumer and consumer packaged goods platform. There is room for meaningful domestic growth potential in the U.S., despite already being a market leader there, with new store formats and expanded food offerings. This has elevated customer experience, penetrated new dayparts and boosted unit-level productivity metrics. Many of Starbucks’ competitive advantages also apply to international markets, a critical growth engine over the next few decades. Despite its ambitious growth plans, Starbucks should be able to sustain a 45-50 per cent dividend payout ratio over the next decade, implying mid-teens average annual dividend growth. However, commodity cost and foreign currency volatility may disrupt quarter to quarter results. Low switching costs could also mean it could lose consumers to rivals.

Our forecasts
Potential Upside:
21.53%
Target Price:
US$70.00
About the company
Current Price
US$57.60
Market Capitalisation
US$83.4b
Average Daily Volume (30 Days)
7.61m
Bloomberg Ticker
SBUX US

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

 

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the world wide web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

52-Week Price Movement
52-Week Price Movement

52-Week High: US$64.5700

52-Week Low: US$51.7700

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

Key financial highlights
 
2014
2015
2016
Revenue (US$ m)
16,448
19,163
21,316
Net Income (US$ m)
2,068
2,757
2,818
Earnings Per Share (US$)
1.36
1.82
1.90
PER (X)
42.4
31.6
30.3
Return on Equity (%)
42.4
49.7
48.2

For the Financial Year ended 31 December

 

The contents in this page are a summary of the investment ideas and recommendations set out in the Morningstar Equity Analyst Report.

CapitaLand Limited
On track to exceed portfolio target by 2020

CapitaLand (CAPL) announced that its serviced residence segment, The Ascott Ltd, will acquire for A$180m (S$191m) an additional 60 per cent stake in Quest Apartment Hotels (Quest). This will boost CAPL’s stake to 80 per cent after which the group will become the largest serviced residence provider in Australasia. The acquisition is favourable as Ascott continues to execute its growth plan and expands its presence worldwide. The group remains on track to exceed its target of having 80,000 units in its portfolio globally by 2020. CAPL will also be marking a milestone in its integrated development strategy this year with four project openings in China which comprise over 1m sqm in GFA and will provide significant recurring income for the group. Management have over 6.2m sqm of GFA in terms of integrated development exposure in China, of which more than half is under development. As the green-field component of the group’s portfolio gets developed and becomes operational, CAPL will be well positioned to expand its recurring income base and improve its ROE. Given its leading market share of serviced residences in Australasia, however, CAPL’s revenue in this segment will be heavily reliant on the tourism in Australasia. Also, the growth of e-commerce in China could pose long-term threat to traditional retail and pressure the occupancy rates and future revenues from CAPL’s integrated development projects.

Our 12-month forecasts
Potential Upside:
16.29%
Target Price:
S$4.07
Dividend:
S$0.12/Share
Dividend Yield:
3.20%
About the company
Current Price
S$3.50
Market Capitalisation
S$14.87b
Average Daily Volume (30 Days)
9.6m
Bloomberg Ticker
CAPL SP

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

 

CapitaLand Limited is a real estate company focused on investment holding. The company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in investment holding, real estate development, investment in real estate financial products and real estate assets, investment advisory and management services, as well as the management of serviced residences.

52-Week Price Movement
52-Week Price Movement

52-Week High: S$ 3.7600

52-Week Low: S$ 2.9700

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

Key financial highlights
 
FY2016
FY2017F
FY2018F
Revenue (S$ m)
5,252.3
4,727.1
4,821.6
Gross Profit (S$ m)
1,597.9
1,654.5
1,735.8
EPS (S¢)
25.0
20.4
20.2
PER (X)
15.0
18.4
18.6
Net Profit Margin (%)
36.3
32.9
31.9

For the Financial Year ended 31 December

 

Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust
Among our top picks within the S-REITs sector

Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust (FLT) recently concluded a private placement exercise to issue 78 million new units at an issue price of S$1.01 per new unit. Besides being 4.6 times subscribed, the final issue price came in at the top end of the indicative range of S$0.985 – S$1.01, which we believe reflects the strong sentiment in the market and confidence in FLT’s prospects. FLT had previously indicated that it may fund its proposed acquisition of a portfolio of seven industrial properties in Australia from its sponsor for an estimated total cost of ~A$179.6m using a combination of debt and equity. The net proceeds raised will be used to partially finance this acquisition. We are positive on this proposed transaction as the properties are fully occupied and have a long weighted average lease to expiry (WALE) of 9.6 years. FLT remains as one of our top picks within the S-REITs sector, offering FY17F distribution yield of 6.5 per cent. Key risks to our forecasts include a depreciation of the AUD against the SGD and non-renewal of leases by tenants at the end of their lease terms.

Our 12-month forecasts
Potential Upside:
8.57%
Target Price:
S$1.14
Dividend:
S$0.069/Share
Dividend Yield:
6.57%
About the company
Current Price
S$1.05
Market Capitalisation
S$1.58b
Average Daily Volume (30 Days)
4.09m
Bloomberg Ticker
FLT SP

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

 

Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust is a Singapore real estate investment trust. The Trust invests globally, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate assets which are predominantly used for logistics or industrial purposes, whether wholly or partially, as well as such industrial real estate-related assets with an initial focus on Australia.

52-Week Price Movement
52-Week Price Movement

52-Week High: S$1.0800

52-Week Low: S$0.8950

Source: Bloomberg as at 6 July 2017

Key financial highlights
 
FY2017F
FY2018F
FY2019F
Gross Revenue (A$ m)
164.6
176.1
179.8
Net Property Income (A$ m)
138.3
147.3
150.3
DPU (S ¢)
6.9
7.0
7.2

For the Financial Year ended 31 December

 

The contents in this page are a summary of the investment ideas and recommendations set out in the Morningstar Equity Analyst Report.

^ Go to Top