"Political turbulence means that there is more uncertainty over the global economic outlook than there has been this decade. The risk of recession – perhaps due to “boom-bust” – has risen.”
– Richard Jerram, Chief Economist, Bank of Singapore
- Previously there was no prospect of a U.S. recession within a realistic time frame. Mildly-loose policy was allowing a gradual absorption of excess capacity. This no longer seems to be an appropriate framework.
- The two factors that usually cause a downturn are an exogenous shock or domestic overheating, that leads to monetary tightening which hurts growth. Both are possible now. The former could stem from tariffs that damage global trade, the latter from fiscal stimulus into an economy already near to full capacity. There is now a realistic risk of a recession in Trump’s first term in office, perhaps by 2019.
- More positive outcomes are also possible. Judicious deregulation and targeted fiscal spending could raise the potential growth rate, especially if accompanied by restraint on trade policy. This could produce a “stronger for longer” expansion. This outlook will need to be revised as the policy direction of the new Trump administration becomes clearer.
- The Eurozone is at risk of the disruption seen in the U.K. and U.S. in 2016, with several important political elections and events in the coming year. Rising anti-EU sentiment in the founding members of the EU is a particular concern. Even if the survival of the EU is not seriously threatened, it is becoming harder to implement reforms that would improve the stability of the region.
- More positively, the anti-EU sentiment seems to have contributed to acceptance of a slight loosening of fiscal policy, which will help to support growth in 2017 and 2018. Unlike the U.S. and Japan, the Eurozone still has significant excess capacity.
- Japan’s economy is around full employment even though growth has averaged just 0.7 per cent over the past five years. Economic activity is only slightly greater than pre-crisis levels in 2008 which is a useful indication of the drag that demographics is having on productive capacity. Growth is set to be a little more rapid in 2017 due to fiscal stimulus and the weaker exchange rate, but this will just be a short-term lift.
- In Asia, China remains a significant medium-term risk. Rapid lending, high investment rates and slowing economic growth is a combination that suggests an inefficient allocation of credit and an eventual bad debt crisis. In China the process is largely internal – so no Lehman shock – and dominated by the state, which implies the consequence is that the growth rate grinds lower, rather than the system explodes.
- After Mexico, Asia is most exposed to U.S. tariffs. Restrictions on U.S. imports from China would affect the entire region through the impact on the extended supply chains. Moreover, the U.S. has large trade deficits with many other Asian economies, even before we consider their exports that go to the U.S. via China.
Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before you make any investment decision, please seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager, you should carefully consider whether the product is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.
OCBC Bank, its related companies, their respective directors and/or employees (collectively ‘Related Persons’) may have positions in, and may effect transaction in the products mentioned herein. OCBC Bank may have alliances with the product providers, for which OCBC Bank may receive a fee. Product providers may also be Related Persons, who may be receiving fees from investors. OCBC Bank and the Related Person may also perform or seek to perform broking and other financial services for the product providers.
No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same.
The contents hereof may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank’s written consent.
The information in this document is not intended to constitute research analysis or recommendation and should not be treated as such.Cross-Border Marketing Disclaimer
1. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. The investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations.
2. Malaysia: Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (“OCBC Bank”) does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by OCBC Bank to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where OCBC Bank has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, OCBC Bank may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product.
3. Myanmar: OCBC Bank does not hold any licence or registration under the FIML or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. All activities relating to the client are conducted strictly on an offshore basis. The customers shall ensure that it is their responsibility to comply with all applicable local laws before entering into discussion or contracts with the Bank.
4. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan.
5. Thailand: Please note that OCBC Bank does not maintain any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of OCBC Bank or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by OCBC Bank or any other entities in OCBC Bank’s group in Thailand.
6. Hong Kong SAR: This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without OCBC Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
© Copyright 2016 - OCBC Bank | All Rights Reserved.