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Navigating uncertainty

Navigating uncertainty

  • May 2026
  • By OCBC
  • 10 mins

While the Middle East crisis may keep markets volatile in the near term, history shows that such periods are often temporary and manageable for long‑term investors provided the crisis is not prolonged and energy supply eases soon. At this juncture we do not see reasons to be bearish as the economic and earnings fundamentals have been resilient, and markets have been supported by abundant liquidity on the sidelines. Staying disciplined, diversified, and selective, with a focus on quality assets, remains the most effective way to navigate uncertainty while remaining positioned for opportunities as markets stabilise.

Structured Investments

As agentic AI adoption grows, AI inference workloads are poised to accelerate and potentially overtake AI training. Unlike training, inference demands persistent low‑latency and energy‑efficient compute, prompting chipmakers to optimise hardware for these needs. This shift marks a transition from experimental spending to steady, monetised AI services that drive recurring revenue and deeper enterprise integration. Beneficiaries of the AI inference inflection include leading hyperscalers providing cloud services, such as Microsoft Corp. Oracle Corp, as a hyperscaler, could also benefit from the AI inference inflection, provided that OpenAI’s inference demand scales comparably to peers and capacity deployment remains on track.

  • Microsoft Corp’s third‑quarter results exceeded the high end of guidance. Public cloud is widely considered the future of enterprise computing, and Azure is a leading service that benefits from the transition first to hybrid environments and ultimately to public cloud environments. Microsoft 365 continues to benefit from upselling into higher‑priced stock‑keeping units, as customers are willing to pay more for enhanced security and Teams Phone, a trend that should continue over the next several years. Microsoft also holds monopoly‑like positions in several areas (eg, OS and Office), which serve as cash cows to help drive Azure’s growth.
  • Oracle Corp delivered outstanding third-quarter results ahead of expectations, with total revenue up 22% to US$17 billion and cloud revenue up 44% to US$9 billion. Most importantly, cloud infrastructure revenue expanded 84% to US$5 billion, and it is the main contributor to Oracle's quarterly outperformance. We think Oracle’s current product lineup is in the best shape it has been in, and the company has the capacity to both retain its traditional on premises customers migrating to the cloud and acquire new customers.

Funds

Multi-asset Funds

Lion-Bank of Singapore CIO Supertrends Multi Asset Fund

The Lion-BOS CIO Supertrends Multi-Asset Fund is a multi-asset strategy that aims to provide income and long-term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of asset classes including global equities, ETFs, global bonds, the writing of equity covered call options and other collective investment schemes. Guided by research from Bank of Singapore’s award-winning Chief Investment Office, the fund takes a rigorous research-based approach to identify quality companies within equities and fixed income with resilient business models and robust fundamentals. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund

The PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund is a global multi-sector strategy that seeks to combine PIMCO’s total return investment process and philosophy with income maximisation. The portfolio construction is founded on the principle of diversification across a broad range of equity and global fixed income securities. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 7.03% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 30 April 2026.

Bond Funds

PIMCO GIS Income Fund

The PIMCO GIS Income Fund is designed for investors who seek steady income with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It takes a broad-based approach to investing in income-generating bonds. The fund aims to achieve this by employing PIMCO’s best income-generating ideas across global fixed income sectors. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.78% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 30 April 2026.

M&G (Lux) Optimal Income

The M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund is a global bond fund that aims to provide a combination of capital growth and income to deliver a return based on exposure to optimal income streams in investment markets, while applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.20% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 30 April 2026

Equity Funds

M&G (Lux) Asian Fund

The M&G (Lux) Asian Fund is an Asian equity fund that aims to provide combined income and capital growth that is higher than that of the Asia (ex-Japan) stock market (as measured by the MSCI All Country Asia Pacific ex Japan Net Return Index) over any five-year period, while applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria.

Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund

The Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund is a global equity fund that aims to achieve income combined with long-term capital growth. It invests at least two-thirds of its assets in equities and equity-related securities of companies. To increase the overall level of income generated, a small portion of investments are held for short periods of time to capture regular dividends that are paid along with one-off or special dividends from companies.

Currencies

Uncertainty persists over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the duration of the resulting energy shock. While hopes of Middle East de‑escalation have lifted risk assets and high‑beta currencies, oil prices briefly reached new highs in April. Strong US equity performance, particularly driven by AI, has weakened the USD’s traditional safe‑haven appeal. Although easing US‑Iran tensions could soften the USD, expectations for a mild depreciation in the second half of 2026 have become less certain.

The April FOMC marked a hawkish shift amid resilient US economic data, with Chair Jerome Powell signalling a move toward neutrality and notable dissent against dovish guidance. While renewed rate hikes would support the USD, this remains unlikely under the current leadership. At the same time, the rotation away from US equities has paused, as robust technology‑led earnings continue to sustain US market outperformance, limiting USD downside.

Oil prices are expected to stay elevated due to infrastructure damage and precautionary stockpiling, even if the Strait reopens. Brent is now forecast to end the year near US$80 per barrel. Higher‑for‑longer energy prices favour energy exporters like the US over importers such as the euro area.

The SGD has remained relatively resilient as a regional defensive currency, supported by its lower beta and the MAS’s tighter policy stance. However, higher oil prices, delayed Fed easing and risks to global growth could still weigh on it against a firmer USD.