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Outlook remains favourable

Outlook remains favourable

  • February 2026
  • By OCBC
  • 10 mins

The economic outlook remains favourable despite all the geopolitical shocks investors have faced this year – Venezuela, Greenland and Iran – and the likelihood of further surprises under the Trump administration in 2026. We think the combination of resilient global growth, rising emerging economies, potentially lower Fed interest rates, ample liquidity on the sidelines and a weaker US Dollar should help risk assets to trend higher, although investors need to brace for intermittent pullbacks.

Structured Investments

Riding on the strengthening liquidity momentum across both the Hong Kong and Singapore equity markets, we are well-positioned to capture rising opportunities and support increased investor activity. This positive trajectory provides a solid foundation for accelerating growth initiatives and deepening market engagement in the region.

Potential beneficiaries include:

  • Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX) is increasingly attracting listings from Southeast Asia and beyond, benefiting from Singapore’s stable regulatory environment, robust financial infrastructure, and strong investor base. SGX’s multi-asset strategy encompasses listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository, data and index services across the equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities space. This comprehensive approach offers global investors multiple avenues of growth within a single trusted ecosystem. Notably, SGX has established itself as the preferred venue for Asian equity derivatives and it is a leader in iron ore derivatives globally.
  • Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEX) remains the primary offshore listing venue for many Chinese companies, especially large state-owned enterprises and tech giants. Increased equity flows driven by China’s economic policies and market reforms translate into higher IPO activity, secondary offerings, and greater trading volumes on HKEX.

    As a vertically integrated securities exchange, HKEX offers listing, data, trading, clearing and settlement services across equities, debt and derivatives. Much like Hong Kong itself, HKEX functions as a gateway connecting China with global markets. It serves as the preferred listing platform for Chinese companies outside mainland China and, through the Connect Scheme, facilitates two-way trading of an expanding range of financial products on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.

Bonds

AIA Group Ltd is a leading insurer in the Asia-Pacific region, operating in 18 markets with strong diversification. Its largest markets are Hong Kong, China and Thailand. Listed in Hong Kong, AIA maintains solid credit ratings and a strong solvency position, supported by a robust business franchise.

AIA Group Ltd (USD)

This bond pays a coupon of 4.50% with maturity date on 16 March 2046 [Callable on 16 September 2045]

AIA reported a strong financial performance for FY2024, with its operating profit after tax up 7% year-on-year to US$6.6 billion, while net profit surged 81%, supported by robust insurance and investment results and the absence of prior-year unrealised losses.

Future earnings visibility remains robust, supported by an 18% growth in the value of new business supported by expanded margins. The company’s focus on sustainable profitability is highlighted by a 9% rise in contractual service margin to US$56.2 billion.

AIA maintains a high-quality investment portfolio, with 69% in fixed income securities averaging an A credit rating, and only about 2% is below investment grade. Exposure risks in China are considered manageable, supported by US$40 billion in equity and strong capital buffers. The company’s capital position is resilient, with a strong solvency ratio of 257%, and low leverage of 13.1%, reinforcing its credit strength and providing security for bondholders.

Funds

Multi-asset Funds

Lion-Bank of Singapore CIO Supertrends Multi Asset Fund

The Lion-BOS CIO Supertrends Multi-Asset Fund is a multi-asset strategy that aims to provide income and long-term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of asset classes including global equities, ETFs, global bonds, the writing of equity covered call options and other collective investment schemes. Guided by research from Bank of Singapore’s award-winning Chief Investment Office, the fund takes a rigorous research-based approach to identify quality companies within equities and fixed income with resilient business models and robust fundamentals. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund

The PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund is a global multi-sector strategy that seeks to combine PIMCO’s total return investment process and philosophy with income maximisation. The portfolio construction is founded on the principle of diversification across a broad range of equity and global fixed income securities. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 7.00% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 30 January 2026.

Bond Funds

FTIF Franklin Diversified Income Fund

The Franklin Diversified Income Fund is a global fixed income fund which invests principally in debt securities issued by governments, agencies and corporations located in any country, including to a lesser extent in Emerging Markets.

PIMCO GIS Income Fund

The PIMCO GIS Income Fund is designed for investors who seek steady income with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It takes a broad-based approach to investing in income-generating bonds. The fund aims to achieve this by employing PIMCO’s best income-generating ideas across global fixed income sectors. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.56% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 30 January 2026.

M&G (Lux) Optimal Income

The M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund is a global bond fund that aims to provide a combination of capital growth and income to deliver a return based on exposure to optimal income streams in investment markets, while applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.12% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 30 January 2026.

Equity Funds

Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund

The Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund is a global equity fund that aims to achieve income combined with long-term capital growth. It invests at least two-thirds of its assets in equities and equity-related securities of companies. To increase the overall level of income generated, a small portion of investments are held for short periods of time to capture regular dividends that are paid along with one-off or special dividends from companies.

AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio Fund

The AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio fund is a global equity fund seeking capital growth through securities of companies that the fund manager believes have lower volatility. Its investment approach focuses on quality, stability and price, where the fund seeks high quality stocks of companies with stable performance and predictable earnings, trading at attractive prices. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

Currencies

Renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness caught many investors off guard, prompting fresh debate about how much further the USD can fall. President Trump’s brief on‑off threats over Greenland have amplified concerns over erratic policymaking and revived the 2025 de‑dollarisation narrative. Speculation around possible US-Japan joint intervention to weaken the USD versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) has also raised questions about whether US policymakers are becoming more tolerant of a softer USD. Several USD downside-risks we had previously highlighted – volatile US policy signals and concerns over Fed independence – have now materialised, contributing to the latest bout of USD softness. The decline could extend if investors remain unconvinced that “maximum US policy uncertainty” has passed. That said, any further weakness is likely to be more contained than in 2025, when tariff‑induced recession fears triggered a sharper selloff. Today’s backdrop is different — US data remains resilient, contrasting with dovish Fed pricing, and should help limit the depth of additional USD downside.