Now reading:

Navigating market uncertainty

Navigating market uncertainty

  • April 2026
  • By OCBC
  • 10 mins

Our base case does not include a prolonged economic or earnings recession, nor a sharp global monetary tightening, supporting a neutral equity stance overall. In fixed income, we maintain a quality, defensive bias and stay neutral on duration amid elevated uncertainty around long‑end interest rates.

While the US Dollar has benefited from near‑term safe‑haven flows, we continue to expect medium‑term headwinds driven by elevated US fiscal deficits and an increasingly volatile policy backdrop.

While tensions in the Middle East may keep markets volatile in the near term, history shows that such periods are often temporary and manageable for long‑term investors. We do not see this as a signal to turn bearish. Staying disciplined, diversified, and selective, with a focus on quality assets, remains the most effective way to navigate uncertainty while remaining positioned for opportunities as markets stabilise.

Structured Investments

The rapid expansion of AI workloads is driving a structural surge in demand for high-performance custom accelerators, networking silicon, and connectivity infrastructure. As hyperscalers race to scale AI clusters, semiconductor suppliers with deep expertise in custom chip design and data-centre networking are positioned to benefit significantly. Broadcom and Marvell, two of the most strategically positioned fabless semiconductor companies, are poised to capture this multi-year AI infrastructure build-out through their strong customer relationships, best-in-class design expertise, and expanding portfolios across AI compute and next-generation data-centre connectivity.

  • Broadcom Inc combines leadership in custom AI chip design with a long history of operational excellence and premium margins. Its January-quarter outlook and new US$11 billion AI chip order from Anthropic underscores a steep acceleration of its AI roadmap. Broadcom is now supplying Google’s industry-leading TPU and expanding to new customers such as Anthropic, Meta, and a newly announced 2026 customer, with expectations that OpenAI joins the roster in 2027. This rapid layering-in of hyperscaler demand supports the view that AI chip revenue could more than double in FY26 and continue the strong momentum into FY27.
  • Marvell Technology Inc is one of the most important suppliers of high-speed connectivity and custom silicon for AI data centres. Although reports of Microsoft exploring a second supplier for its Maia AI accelerator caused short-term volatility, this reflects normal multisourcing practices rather than weakness in Marvell’s design capabilities. Marvell continues to hold six AI chip design wins, including for Microsoft, and retains strong leadership in optical connectivity - an essential component powering modern AI clusters. Importantly, even if Broadcom joins as a second Maia supplier, this transition will take years and does not impact Marvell’s revenue forecast through 2027. Marvell is still expected to see its custom chip revenue double in FY28 as Maia ramps up production, supported by a diversified portfolio across processors, optics, switches, and storage controllers.

Bonds

Prudential Funding Asia is part of Prudential plc, an Asian life insurance group with a long operating history and a strong presence across key markets. The company benefits from a geographically diversified business mix, recurring premium income and stable fee-based earnings from its asset management arm. Solid capitalisation and a robust solvency profile continue to support Prudential’s credit quality, alongside steady long-term demand for life and health insurance across Asia.

Prudential Funding Asia (USD)

This bond pays a coupon of 3.625% with maturity date on 24 March 2032.

  • Prudential’s earnings are supported by its broad life and health insurance operations across Asia, complemented by Eastspring, Prudential’s asset-management arm, and recurring fee income.
  • Credit fundamentals appear firm, as reflected in its strong capitalisation, a healthy solvency ratio and stable leverage metrics. The company’s large and established presence in major Asian markets helps underpin consistent earnings generation despite near-term fluctuations.
  • While FY2024’s results were mixed, management updated that underlying momentum improved, with better regional contributions in early FY2025. Guidance points to continued new business profit growth.
  • Prudential’s senior unsecured bonds carry A-range ratings with a stable outlook, supported by diversified funding and the group’s solid financial profile.

Funds

Multi-asset Funds

Lion-Bank of Singapore CIO Supertrends Multi Asset Fund

The Lion-BOS CIO Supertrends Multi-Asset Fund is a multi-asset strategy that aims to provide income and long-term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of asset classes including global equities, ETFs, global bonds, the writing of equity covered call options and other collective investment schemes. Guided by research from Bank of Singapore’s award-winning Chief Investment Office, the fund takes a rigorous research-based approach to identify quality companies within equities and fixed income with resilient business models and robust fundamentals. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund

The PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund is a global multi-sector strategy that seeks to combine PIMCO’s total return investment process and philosophy with income maximisation. The portfolio construction is founded on the principle of diversification across a broad range of equity and global fixed income securities. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 7.40% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 March 2026.

Bond Funds

PIMCO GIS Income Fund

The PIMCO GIS Income Fund is designed for investors who seek steady income with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It takes a broad-based approach to investing in income-generating bonds. The fund aims to achieve this by employing PIMCO’s best income-generating ideas across global fixed income sectors. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.80% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 March 2026.

M&G (Lux) Optimal Income

The M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund is a global bond fund that aims to provide a combination of capital growth and income to deliver a return based on exposure to optimal income streams in investment markets, while applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 5.68% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 March 2026.

Equity Funds

Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund

The Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund is a global equity fund that aims to achieve income combined with long-term capital growth. It invests at least two-thirds of its assets in equities and equity-related securities of companies. To increase the overall level of income generated, a small portion of investments are held for short periods of time to capture regular dividends that are paid along with one-off or special dividends from companies.

Currencies

The recent energy shock has upended the earlier “Goldilocks” narrative of firming non‑US growth and easing global inflation. Markets are now trading energy terms‑of‑trade winners and losers, alongside renewed stagflation concerns. The US Dollar (USD) remains the preferred risk‑off hedge — especially when the shock, like current energy shock, is global rather than US‑specific. Its status as a net energy‑exporter currency adds to its appeal.

A softer USD later this year remains plausible if oil prices fall as expected in the second half, boosting non‑US growth while ongoing US policy uncertainty continues to encourage diversification away from the USD. Even so, resilient US economic performance limits the scope for any sharp USD decline. A more sustained USD rebound would require a clear acceleration in US growth — something still missing for now — although early signs of labour market stabilisation could support a gradual recovery heading into 2027.