Singapore’s April export figures surprise positively
Singapore’s April export figures surprise positively
Even if a US-China trade deal is ultimately negotiated, there are still potential sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and others to come, which could be stumbling blocks to the road ahead.
Selena Ling
Head, Global Markets Research & Strategy,
OCBC
Singapore’s April Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) surprised on the upside with a 12.4% year on year (YoY) gain, beating Bloomberg ‘s consensus forecast of 4.3% YoY and our forecast of 3.1% YoY.
It was also more than double the March print of 5.4% YoY. Notably, electronics exports surged 23.5% YoY in April, nearly double the revised March reading of 12.2% YoY.
The April overall NODX and electronics NODX prints were the strongest since July and November 2024 respectively.
Non-electronics NODX also grew by 9.3% YoY in April, up from the 3.7% YoY in March, aided by non-monetary gold (80.4%) and structures of ships & boats and specialised machinery (7.2%).
For electronics NODX, the April outperformance was driven by PCs (124.3% YoY), ICs (23.3%) ad disk media products (33.0%). This could be attributed to the ongoing front-loading, especially after the Trump administration exempted several electronic products from reciprocal tariffs. In addition, reciprocal tariff on Singapore’s exports to the US was set at a minimal 10% (the lowest rate amongst the reciprocal tariffs imposed).
Among the top 10 NODX markets, only China and Malaysia saw a contraction in April. April NODX grew by at least a double-digit YoY pace to 5 of the top 10 markets. The five were Indonesia (111.2% YoY due mainly to structures of ships & boats, non-monetary gold and PCs), Taiwan (47.4% YoY due mainly to specialised machinery, ICs and measuring instruments), South Korea (38.1% YoY due to specialised machinery, ICs and PCs), Hong Kong (26.4% YoY) and Thailand (10.5% YoY).
In contrast, NODX to the US slowed sharply from 6.2% YoY in March to 1.2% in April and was broad based across electronics NODX (0.8% versus 11.3% previously) and non-electronics (1.3% versus 5.4% previously). Meanwhile, NODX to Malaysia also moderated to contract by 1% YoY in April (March: 12.4%), dragged down by electronics (-0.5% versus 25.9% previously) and non-electronics (-1.4% versus 3.7% previously).
The worst NODX performing market was China which sank again by 17.0% YoY in April, although this was milder than the 29.5% slump in March – interestingly the non-electronics NODX slump (-18.0%) was worse than the electronics NODX contraction (-9.6%) which could be reflective of the weak domestic consumption demand.
While the outcome of tariff negotiations between the US and its trading partners is still pending during the 90-days suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the softening of NODX to the US market requires monitoring. The US has announced a tariff deal with the UK, lowered tariffs on Chinese exports during a 90-day truce period and it is conducting various ongoing trade negotiations with many other countries. As a result, risk sentiments have turned a shade brighter. This could be a relief window where frontloading potentially continues until there is better clarity. However, it remains to be seen if a more permanent trade deal can be reached between the US and China during the 90-day period.
Our full-year 2025 NODX forecast for Singapore remains at a range of -1% to 1% YoY. To reiterate, the WTO has significantly downgraded its global merchandise trade growth for this year from 3% to 0.2% YoY, stemming largely from escalating trade tensions including the intensifying US-China trade war which could lead to an expected 81% drop in their bilateral merchandise trade, ceteris paribus (i.e., other things being equal).
Notably, North America’s trade is projected to slump by 12.6% YoY (2024: 2.3%), while that for Asia will slow to just 1.6% (2024: 8.0%). If there is broader spillover of policy uncertainty, the WTO tips an even sharper drop of 1.5% YoY in 2025, although it sees a rebound to 2.5% in 2026. The WTO also warned that such economic decoupling could cut global GDP by up to 7% in the long term.
Additionally, the shift from a rules-based to a deals-based trading system has introduced heightened unpredictability and potentially undermines global economic stability. Even if a US-China trade deal is ultimately negotiated, there are still potential sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and others to come, which could be stumbling blocks to the road ahead. Moreover, the high NODX base in 2H2024 is another issue to contend with, as a stronger 1H2025 NODX growth could give way to a sharper moderation ahead in 2H2025.
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