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Constructive on risk assets in 2026

Constructive on risk assets in 2026

  • December 2025
  • By OCBC
  • 10 mins

Looking into 2026, we maintain a constructive stance on risk assets for the year ahead. Our base case is anchored on supportive growth outlooks across the major economies. Markets will continue to face economic and geopolitical headwinds, and this creates the potential for episodic volatility. However, it is not a challenge for investors with well-positioned portfolios. Remember that ultimately, investing is a journey and not a race. Being disciplined and staying the course are important factors in growing one’s wealth in the longer term.

Structured Investments

The Fourth Plenum and the proposal for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan underscores the nation’s commitment to economic rebalancing, with a strong emphasis on innovation-led growth. Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains a top strategic priority, positioned as a key enabler of productivity, industrial upgrading, and technology self-sufficiency. Potential beneficiaries include:

  • Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd – It is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company by gross merchandise volume, operating leading platforms such as Taobao and Tmall. Its core China retail e-commerce business remains the primary cash flow driver, complemented by wholesale, international commerce, cloud computing, logistics, and digital media. The company is aggressively investing in AI infrastructure, expanding its global data centre capacity tenfold by 2032 and partnering with Nvidia to strengthen its position in AI. Alibaba also leads in AI cloud services and open-source models, supported by proprietary AI chips and full-stack capabilities that enable adoption across industries. Financially, Alibaba is robust, with cash and investments representing 49% of its market cap as of June 2025, alongside strategic asset divestments, increased dividends, and share buybacks.
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd – It is one of China’s largest technology and internet companies, operating leading platforms in social networking, gaming, digital content, fintech, and cloud services. The company is driving growth through AI across its core businesses. In advertising, AI-powered targeting, creative automation, and monetisation of Mini Programs and Search, have fuelled strong revenue gains, with ad revenue projected to rise by 21% YoY in 3Q2025 and 20% for FY2025. Its gaming ecosystem benefits from AI-enhanced development and engagement, highlighted by Delta Force’s 30 million-plus Daily Active Users and stable performance of evergreen titles, supporting projected gaming revenue growth of 20% YoY in 3Q2025 and 22% for FY2025. Additionally, AI is accelerating fintech and cloud expansion, improving wealth management, lending, and e-commerce personalisation, with the FinTech and Business Services segment’s revenue expected to rise 9% YoY in 3Q2025 and 8% for FY25.

Bonds

Lenovo is the world’s largest PC vendor by shipment and a top player in servers and smartphones, with a global presence across Americas, China, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa), and Asia Pacific. Its three business segments – Intelligent Devices Group, Infrastructure Solutions Group and Software and Services Group - deliver balanced revenue streams, supported by double-digit growth across all units in recent quarters.

Lenovo Group Ltd (USD)

This bond pays a coupon of 3.421% with maturity date on 2 November 2030.

Lenovo maintains stable operating and free cash flow, a net cash position of US$393 million, and robust liquidity with unused revolving facilities of US$3 billion. Credit metrics remain healthy with gross leverage at 1.5x and EBITDA interest coverage at 4.1x. Strategic investments in Hybrid AI and partnerships like Alat (a company that’s wholly owned by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and focused on transforming global industries through sustainable electronics and industrial manufacturing), position Lenovo for long-term growth, while risks such as US tariffs appear manageable.

Funds

Multi-asset Funds

Lion-Bank of Singapore CIO Supertrends Multi Asset Fund

The Lion-BOS CIO Supertrends Multi-Asset Fund is a multi-asset strategy that aims to provide income and long-term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of asset classes including global equities, ETFs, global bonds, the writing of equity covered call options and other collective investment schemes. Guided by research from Bank of Singapore’s award-winning Chief Investment Office, the fund takes a rigorous research-based approach to identify quality companies within equities and fixed income with resilient business models and robust fundamentals. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund

The PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund is a global multi-sector strategy that seeks to combine PIMCO’s total return investment process and philosophy with income maximisation. The portfolio construction is founded on the principle of diversification across a broad range of equity and global fixed income securities. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.88% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 October 2025.

Bond Funds

PIMCO GIS Income Fund

The PIMCO GIS Income Fund is designed for investors who seek steady income with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It takes a broad-based approach to investing in income-generating bonds. The fund aims to achieve this by employing PIMCO’s best income-generating ideas across global fixed income sectors. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.47% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 October 2025.

M&G (Lux) Optimal Income

The M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund is a global bond fund that aims to provide a combination of capital growth and income to deliver a return based on exposure to optimal income streams in investment markets, while applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.04% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 October 2025.

Equity Funds

Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund

The Abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund is a global equity fund that aims to achieve income combined with long-term capital growth. It invests at least two-thirds of its assets in equities and equity-related securities of companies. To increase the overall level of income generated, a small portion of investments are held for short periods of time to capture regular dividends that are paid along with one-off or special dividends from companies.

AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio Fund

The AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio fund is a global equity fund seeking capital growth through securities of companies that the fund manager believes have lower volatility. Its investment approach focuses on quality, stability and price, where the fund seeks high quality stocks of companies with stable performance and predictable earnings, trading at attractive prices. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

Currencies

Looking into 2026, we anticipate the US dollar (USD) to trade moderately softer. Fading US exceptionalism and the Fed’s easing cycle is expected to gradually erode the greenback’s carry advantage. Recent private sector data reinforce the view of a softening US labour market with job creation slowing, layoffs on the rise, and key indicators such as job postings and wage growth trackers declining.

Our base case projects one additional Fed rate cut in December 2025, followed by a further 25 basis point reduction in the first quarter of 2026. Additional easing will likely hinge on inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Under these conditions, the USD has room to depreciate, provided that risk-on sentiment remains intact, global growth outside the US remains supported, and the Fed maintains its easing trajectory.