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Thursday, 20 November 2008

US equities fell while bonds and the dollar rallied.

US stocks fell sharply, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed under 8000 for the first time in more than five-and-a-half years as investors worried about the future of US auto makers and banks. Commodities and consumer stocks fell as data and comments from the Federal Reserve raised fears of deflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.1% to 7997, which would be its lowest close in more than five-and-a-half years. US consumer prices took a dive during October as weakening consumer demand for goods and services dragged down prices. In addition, home construction took its fourth tumble in a row during October, falling to a record low, though the decrease was in line with expectations.

US Treasuries got an extra boost in late-afternoon trading as US stock indexes deepened losses amidst rising recession and deflation worries. Adding to the gloomy sentiment were dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting that open the door for further interest-rate cuts. The Fed also downgraded both the growth and employment forecasts, signalling that weakness in the economy will continue heading into 2009.

The dollar finished strongly against the euro as the euro was overcome by a drop in US stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined more than 400 points late Wednesday, encouraging investors to escape positions back into the major funding currency, the dollar.

Wednesday, 19 November 2008

US equities, bonds and dollar rallied.

US stocks rose after a late round of buying helped financial stocks and the broad Standard & Poor's 500 narrowly avert closing at their lowest levels in more than five years. A rare positive earnings surprise from Hewlett-Packard, helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain more than 150 points. H-P rose 14% to US$33.59. The computer maker forecast fiscal 2009 profit ahead of the average Wall Street estimate, showing that its diversified business model, encompassing printers and services, will help it avoid the most painful effects of a slowdown in computer sales.

Treasury prices booked a solid rally across the curve in the wake of the tepid producer price data, and more bad news on housing and weak equity markets.

The dollar rose Tuesday as lower oil prices and volatile stock markets created risk aversion in currency markets that sent investors scurrying for the perceived stability of the greenback.

Tuesday, 18 November 2008

US equities were lower while bonds strengthened. The dollar was mixed.

US stocks fell as bellwether multinationals such as Citigroup and mining giant BHP Billiton braced for an extended contraction of commercial activity. The slowdown in consumer spending, the backbone of the US economy, was clear from results from discounter Target and builders' supplier Lowe's. Citigroup fell to US$8.89 despite the banking giant saying that it would contain costs by laying off 50,000 employees.

Continued fears about the depth of the US economic slowdown sparked a bid in US Treasuries on Monday.

The dollar was range-bound against the euro and the yen as a mixed bag of US economic data helped keep a lid on trading action in foreign exchange markets. Late in the session, the euro was stronger against the dollar from earlier data, while the yen was little changed versus the greenback.

Monday, 17 November 2008

U.S. equities were lower while bonds and the greenback rallied.

U.S. stocks ended Friday weighed down by more discouraging outlooks from consumer and technology companies, including Nordstrom, J.C. Penney and Nokia. Setting the tone for Friday's session was a report from the U.S. Commerce Department that showed October retail sales tumbled 2.8%. Leading the declines in the large-cap space, J.C. Penney and Nordstrom both forecast fiscal fourth-quarter earnings below analysts' projections while also posting fiscal third-quarter net income declines of more than 50%. Nokia, the world's largest mobile handset maker, became the latest company to fall victim to the financial crisis, lowering its expectations for the fourth quarter and 2009.

Bond prices rallied rally Friday on weak retail sales data, but ended off their high point after the equity market backed away from steep opening losses. The gains in bond prices came mostly in longer-dated issues, and the short end of the yield curve was relatively quiet.

The greenback rose against the euro due to a drop in U.S. stock markets and weak economic data.

Friday, 14 November 2008

US equities rallied while bonds and dollar sold off.

U.S. stocks returned with a vengeance closing 553 points higher after dropping 300 points earlier. The surge in the DOW was led by industrials like Caterpillar and energy names like Chevron. CB Richard Ellis surged 43% after the company managed to raise cash in a share sale. They are the world’s largest provider of commercial real-estate services. The rally was widespread as financials like Goldman and Morgan Stanley also closed higher by 5% and 11% respectively.

Treasuries suffered a wave of selling as equities rallied. The poor 30-yr bond auction also added to the dismal performance last night. Whole curve was sold off but losses in the longer tenor were more severe causing the 2x10’s to steepen to 261bp from 249bp.

Dollars took a tumble against the EUR while rising against the YEN as carry trades flock back into the market. The moves completely reversed big intraday losses with EUR below 1.2500 and EURYEN 119.00. EUR is currently at 1.2780 against the dollar and 124.50 agsinst the YEN. GBP and AUD also gained overnight. RBA was believed to have intervened in the market for the fourth time in the past month.

Thursday, 13 November 2008

US equities were down while bonds and the dollar rallied.

US stocks plunged and the Nasdaq Composite fell to its lowest level in more than five years as the chief executive of Best Buy warned the consumer-electronics retailer is contending with the most difficult consumer-spending environment he had ever seen. Best Buy fell 8%, to US$21.97. The retailer slashed its profit outlook and warned that sales could fall between 5% and 15% in the current quarter, suggesting slow holiday-season traffic at malls nationwide. There were added fears that the original US Treasury's bank-rescue plan was in tatters, sending financial stocks such as Citigroup and American Express to their lowest levels in more than 10 years.

US Treasuries rallied as worries about the depth of the economic slowdown intensified, sending investors scrambling into low-risk government debt. The gains came as stocks fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by nearly 4% in late trade.

The UK pound took centre stage in currency markets, plunging to a six-year low against the dollar following a sobering economic assessment from the Bank of England. BOE Gov. Mervyn King said the UK economy is probably already in a recession and suggested more interest rate cuts are coming.

Wednesday, 12 November 2008

US equities were down while the dollar was mixed.

US stocks fell as American Express and Starbucks underscored the extent of the consumer-spending slowdown in the US, while commodity stocks like Devon Energy fell on concerns that even the stimulus package of the central bank of China may not be able to jump-start demand worldwide.

Meanwhile, fears about the viability of the US auto sector dragged General Motors to its lowest level since World War II. American Express fell 6.6% after the credit-card provider sought bank-holding status, a move interpreted as a cry for government assistance under the bank bailout plan. Starbucks also fell 2.1% after the coffee-shop chain warned it was opening fewer stores overseas than planned because of a plunge in fiscal fourth-quarter profit.

The US bond market was closed yesterday for Veterans Day.

The euro declined against the dollar Tuesday as US equities continued to slide in thin market trading.

Tuesday, 11 November 2008

US equities were down while bonds were up. The dollar was mixed.

US stocks fell as investors feared that even China's US$586 billion stimulus plan could not prevent slowing demand for goods and services worldwide, and as worries about US auto makers and banks persisted. Shares of General Motors fell 23% to US$3.36, its lowest levels since just after World War II on fears shareholders will be wiped out even in the event of a government bailout. GM had warned that it would run low on cash by the second quarter of next year if circumstances do not change immediately. Ford Motor fell 4.5% to US$1.93.

US Treasuries gained as the US government bond market recovered from an early bout of selling last night following a successful three-year note auction and as investors moved money out of the stock market and into Treasuries. The higher prices also came in spite of the massive US$183 billion worth of Treasury supply still looming on the horizon.

The dollar and the euro fell against the yen in New York as a decline in US stock markets reversed a temporary bout of optimism that originated from the news of the Chinese fiscal stimulus plan.

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