Positioning For The Dragon Year
Since the start of the New Year, Asian markets have enjoyed an inflow of funds. Bringing additional cheer to the region were the rating upgrades of Indonesia by Fitch and Moody’s which boosted the country’s currency and bond markets.

The upgrades are significant because it took place, even as rating agencies warned of the outlook for European sovereigns and downgraded the rating for some of them.

Looking ahead, we believe that Europe’s debt woes have yet to be resolved and continue to pose risks. As markets are likely to be volatile, we suggest staggering your investments over time and diversifying your portfolio to reduce downside risk.

Mixed-Asset Funds
Clients who wish to invest in a diverse range of assets including alternative asset classes like gold and property can do so, through a fund like Schroder Multi-Asset Revolution. Those who prefer to benefit from growth and safety may wish to consider an Asian balanced fund like the new LionGlobal New Target Return Fund 2 or First State Bridge.

Equity Funds
While we are cautious of equities for the short-term, we believe that Asia and the Emerging Markets should out-perform the developed markets over the medium-term given their superior fundamentals.

Clients who wish to gain exposure to Asian Pacific ex-Japan equities may wish to consider First State Dividend Advantage, given its focus on companies with steady cash flows and strong cash balances.

Alternative investments
Given the positive outlook for Asia, another way to gain exposure to Asian financial institutions without the volatility of equity prices could be through a credit-linked note. Clients will get a fixed coupon for taking on the credit risk of the underlying company and the issuer.

Man AHL Trend SGD (a managed Futures Fund) can profit from market trends and can help to stabilise portfolio performance. Investors looking to introduce less-correlated assets into their portfolios may wish to consider this.

Stocks

For equity-linked investments, we remain optimistic about defensive sectors as well as companies with strong cash holdings and balance sheets. Although we are mindful of the uncertainties associated with the property sector, Property REITS are also worth a consideration. However, the suburban retail sector – which offers decent yields – would be a relatively defensive space to look at.

Starhub, SingTel, Frasers Centrepoint, CapitaMall Trust and Comfort Delgro are some names in Singapore to consider.

For U.S. equities, we like Visa for its global presence.

Currencies
The Australian dollar remains well supported, trading above parity against the greenback in January, and continues to provide interesting investment opportunities for investors.

In the short term, we are tactically optimistic about the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar with a near-term target of US$1.07. We are however mindful that any significant deterioration of China’s economic outlook could lead to pullbacks among commodity-based currencies.

We are neutral on the Euro and expect the S$1.70 key level to remain a significantly resistant beleaguered currency against the Singapore dollar.

For the longer term, investors with a good risk appetite and looking to benefit from China’s domestic growth story may wish to consider the offshore Renminbi.

–	MICHAEL TAN
	Head, Premier Wealth Advisory, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Markets started 2012 on a firmer footing as investors sought to commit a portion of their cash to risk assets, reversing the trend of fund outflows in the second half of last year.

Beyond the traditional “January effect”, there are reasons for investors’ renewed optimism. Unprecedented action by the ECB to support the European bank’s funding and the coordinated effort by various central banks to make the U.S. dollar funding cheaply available have significantly reduced the risk of a systemic banking crisis.

In addition, economic data coming out of both the U.S. and China has been better than expected, inflationary pressures in Asia have continued to moderate, and China has signified the end of monetary tightening with its first reserve ratio requirement cut.



At the same time, we would not advocate being overly aggressive as significant risks persist.

The European sovereign debt crisis is likely to be a long drawn-out affair given the multiple funding hurdles, while the strength of global growth will continue to be capped by household deleveraging in the United States, recessionary forces in Europe and slowing activity in Asia.

There are complications resulting from the political elections and transitions in various major countries and diplomatic tensions building over the Iranian nuclear issue constitute a risk to oil prices. Continued volatility and swings in market sentiment are therefore expected.

Overall, we would recommend buying risk assets on dips and continue to emphasise on stock selection and credit selection which will enable investors to make use of opportunities presented by the volatility more discriminately.

–	SIMON FLOOD
	Chief Investment Officer, Lion Global Investors

» Read more about the wealth expert

Economic prospects remain uncertain for now, and there are concerns of further cut-backs in investments, capital expenditures and overall spending. Companies could face lower demand and sales, especially in the first two quarters of this year, which means that corporate earnings could be downgraded in the months ahead to reflect the uncertain business outlook.

On the local bourse, stocks have been volatile due to continued uncertainties in the Eurozone region. Although the benchmark ST Index got off to a good start in early 2012, aided in part by the Capricorn effect, the uptrend may not be unsustainable as stock prices traded within a narrow range and the low trading volumes reflect a lack of buying conviction.

Despite the uncertainties ahead, we continue to see some silver linings ahead. Oil prices have moved up in the past few weeks, and the former could give the local Oil & Gas players a lift, as capital expenditures generally increase with higher prices.

Uncertainties can also translate to opportunities for cash-rich companies, resulting in more M&A and takeover opportunities, aided by the inexpensive valuations as well. REITs listed here for example, could be one segment of the market seeking buying opportunities to expand their property portfolios. We expect interest in REITs to remain firm in 2012, as investors continue to favour yield plays.

Here in Singapore, the government budget will be unveiled on 17th February, but early comments from policymakers suggest that it is likely to focus on the longer-term strategies for the Singapore economy which will face challenges in the coming years.



In this uncertain investment climate, we continue to see flight to safety as the trend. This favours defensive sectors such as Telecommunications, Oil & Gas, Healthcare and even banks because of their undemanding valuations, strong asset quality and high credit ratings.

–	CARMEN LEE
	Head, Investment Research, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

After a choppy last quarter in 2011, markets have taken a breather as global economic indicators turn slightly more positive, relative to market expectations and after the ECB responded to the liquidity crunch among Eurozone banks by releasing a flood of U.S. dollar three-year funding.

In a widely anticipated move, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of nine Eurozone countries, which included cutting the triple-A ratings of France and Austria by a notch to AA+, while Italy, Spain and Portugal saw their ratings cut by two notches.

S&P said that the region’s policy response has not kept up with the rising challenges it faces. The rating agency also said that there is a 40 per cent probability that the region’s economy may contract by 1.5 per cent this year.

In addition, S&P assigned France and 13 other Eurozone nations a negative outlook, indicating at least a one-in-three chance of a further downgrade in the next two years, as there is a “risk that reform fatigue could be mounting, especially in those countries that have experienced deep recessions, and where growth prospects remain bleak”, quoting S&P.

In addition, the credit rating of the bailout fund, EFSF, was cut from AAA to AA+ by S&P and removed from CreditWatch negative.

Nevertheless, apart from the initial knee-jerk reaction, markets absorbed the latest downgrades relatively well as suggested by recent Spanish and French bond auctions.



For instance, the recent economic growth rate for China in the last quarter of 2011 suggests a modest slowdown rather than a hard landing for the economy. In addition, Indonesia’s sovereign rating-upgrade by Fitch and Moody’s suggests that the medium-term structural story for Emerging Markets is still attractive.

So, even as economic growth projections are moderated this year, a more benign interest rate environment with policy backstops (as was seen in the case of the ECB) should reassure investors that 2012 will not be a repeat of 2009. That means that the first half of 2012 should present good opportunities for bargain hunters as markets are likely to be volatile.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Risk appetite increased considerably in the initial weeks of 2012 with better news flow and better-than-expected bond auctions from the Eurozone region.

In light of this, markets experienced a “January effect” of sorts with investors attempting to put money back on the table, with the major currencies, including the Euro, heading higher against the greenback.

We have been tactically positive about the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar and have also gone neutral on the Euro against the U.S. dollar.

However, as the outlook for the Eurozone remains fraught with uncertainties, we will refrain from being too positive about the Euro for now and expect the currency to remain a relative underperformer within the G10 space.

The Euro aside, an improvement in risk appetite and a better-than-expected global growth outlook may boost interest in the commodity or growth-linked currencies like the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and Asian currencies.

There is also a good chance that China may not experience a hard landing especially in light of recent better-than-expected data and given room to ease monetary policy significantly.



On the Renminbi, we expect it to see a more moderate appreciation against the U.S. dollar. While Asia remains vulnerable to a global economic slowdown, the resumption of capital inflows into Asian markets at the onset of the year has led to greater optimism about regional currencies.

However, such bond and equity inflows could reverse if investors turn cautious because of negative developments in the Eurozone and if global growth slows down more sharply than expected.

If global risk appetite does not wane significantly, the currencies we favour in Asia are the Singapore dollar, the Indonesian rupiah and the Korean won.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

While we are positive about the commodity sector in the medium-term, its ability to head higher in the short term is contingent on Europe’s ability to get its house in order, China’s ability to steer a soft landing and the U.S. economy’s ability to continue improving in the coming months.



Jewellery demand which accounts for more than 50 per cent of total gold demand should remain firm, given good growth prospects for China and India, which are major purchasers.

Gold jewellery demand in India is set to grow 10 per cent to 15 per cent this year, according to the head of India's biggest jewellery retailer.

Gold demand is also climbing in China as incomes rise and concerns about inflation bolster purchases. China overtook India in the third quarter of 2011 as the largest gold jewellery market, according to the World Gold Council.

While demand has been on the rise, supply has been stable. The stability of production comes from the fact that when new mines are developed, they mostly serve to replace current production, rather than expanding global production levels.

Gold production does experience comparatively long lead times, with new mines taking up to 10 years to come on stream. That means mining output is relatively inelastic.

Elsewhere, we are also positive about soft commodities for the medium term. Awry weather conditions should help to underpin prices. For example, the La Nina weather phenomenon is expected to continue in the coming weeks and the associated dry weather is likely to affect production, offering support to the prices of soybeans and grains.

In the coming months, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Planting Intentions survey to be published end of March will set the direction for soft commodities in the short term at least. We are cautious of base metals as China’s efforts to cool its economy could weigh on prices.

Oil should find support from tensions in the Middle East, despite concerns about slower global economic growth. We expect prices to be range bound in the coming months.

–	VASU MENON
	Head, Content & Research, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before you make any investment decision, please seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager, you should carefully consider whether the product is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

A copy of the prospectus of each fund is available and may be obtained from the relevant fund manager or any of its approved distributors. Potential investors should read the prospectus for details on the relevant fund before deciding whether to subscribe for, or purchase units in the fund. The value of the units in the funds and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Please refer to the prospectus of the relevant fund for the name of the fund manager and the investment objectives of the fund.

OCBC Bank may have alliances with the product providers, for which OCBC Bank may receive a fee. Product providers may also be Related Persons, who may be receiving fees from investors. OCBC Bank and the Related Persons may also perform or seek to perform broking and other financial services for the product providers. OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report.

By buying Dual Currency Returns, you are giving us the right to repay you at a future date in a different currency from the currency in which you made your original investment, even if you would prefer not to be paid in this currency at that time. Dual Currency Returns are affected by foreign exchange rates, which may affect how much you get back from your investment. You may receive less than you originally invested.

Foreign exchange control restrictions may apply to the foreign currencies linked to your Dual Currency Returns. As a result, we may repay your investment and interest in a different currency. You may receive less than you originally invested when the amount of this different currency is converted back to the base currency (the currency you originally invested). You may be able to get information on foreign exchange control restrictions, if any, for each foreign currency offered in relation to Dual Currency Returns, from the relevant monetary, regulatory or other governmental authorities for that currency.

We will not end Dual Currency Returns before the maturity date (the date they are due to end). You may, however, withdraw the amount you originally invested before the maturity date. If you do this, please remember that you will have to pay any charges that apply which are calculated based on the amount of time remaining before the maturity date, as well as current market conditions relating to strike prices, foreign exchange rates and changes in the underlying foreign exchange pair. These charges may mean that you get back much less than you originally invested. Please feel free to approach your relationship manager for details of the procedures and charges that apply if you withdraw your Dual Currency Returns investment before the maturity date.

Foreign currency investments or deposits are subject to inherent exchange rate fluctuations that may provide opportunities and risks. Earnings on foreign currency investments or deposits would be dependent on the exchanges rates prevalent at the time of their maturity if any conversion takes place. Exchange controls may be applicable from time to time to certain foreign currencies. Any pre-termination costs will be deducted from your deposit.

No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statement regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same.

The contents hereof may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank’s written consent.

Investing for 2012
As we move into 2012, we expect continued volatility in the various asset classes as investors continue to operate in a heightened state of uncertainty. We strongly suggest staggering your investments over time and diversifying your investment portfolio to reduce downside risk.

Equity Funds
While we are cautious on equities for the short term, we do believe that Asia and the Emerging Markets space enjoy better fundamentals when compared to the developed markets. Clients who wish to gain exposure to Asia may want to consider the First State Dividend Advantage Fund first, with its focus on Asian companies with steady cash flows and strong cash balances.

Clients with a stronger stomach for risk can consider 2 other funds with a more growth-orientated strategy:

• Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund (exposure to a diversified portfolio of Asia-Pacific equities excluding Japanese equities)
• Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund (exposure to emerging stock markets worldwide or companies with significant activities in Emerging Markets)

Bond Funds
The need for prudent asset allocation calls for a representation of bonds in any investors’ portfolio. Given a low interest rate environment and continued uncertainty on the Europe situation, bond funds should continue to provide a viable source of yields. Here are a couple of bond funds that provide exposure to government-related issuers or corporate entities worldwide:

• Franklin Templeton Global Total Return Fund
• PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond Fund

Alternative investments
Man AHL Trend SGD (a managed futures fund) can profit from trending markets and help to stabilise portfolio performance. Investors looking to introduce less-correlated assets into their portfolios may wish to consider this.

Stocks
For equity-linked investments, we continue to advocate sectors that are either defensive in nature, or have strong cash holdings and balance sheets. Property REITs are also worth a consideration, although we are mindful of the particular sector they represent. The Suburban Retail sector would be a relatively defensive space to look at, with decent yields to boot.

StarHub, SingTel, Frasers Centrepoint and Comfort Delgro are some names in Singapore to consider.

For U.S. equities, we like Coca-Cola and Visa for their global presence.

Currencies
The Australian dollar continues to provide interesting investment opportunity for investors, although we would suggest a touch of caution given global uncertainty. The currency is expected to trade around the S$1.28–S$1.32 range in the interim. We expect the greenback to continue doing well in the short term, given the Europe situation.

–	MICHAEL TAN
	Head, Premier Wealth Advisory, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

2012 is likely to be yet another challenging year for investors. The macro environment remains fraught with uncertainty. Risks to the global financial system from the European debt crisis have not dissipated and a likely European recession will have a negative impact on Asia through trade and banking channels.

We have already seen sharp drops in Asia’s export and industrial production growth numbers in late 2011. Within Asia, China continues to face the challenge of balancing between supporting growth on one hand, and controlling property price inflation and informal lending on the other, and at the same time navigating a leadership transition in 2012.

In the U.S., recent economic data has been better than expected, but growth is unlikely to be robust in the absence of real income growth and a meaningful housing recovery. Political intransigence is likely to permeate U.S. economic policy all the way to the Presidential Elections in late 2012. In such a climate, the possibility of a meaningful fiscal stimulus is slim. On the geopolitical level, Iran’s nuclearisation and political instability in the Middle East are risks to oil prices.



Central banks have begun to cut rates and real rates remain negative in most parts of the world. Falling inflation gives policymakers room to ease further. Valuations for equities and corporate bonds are also attractive, and corporate fundamentals are healthy.

Overall, the magnitude and complexity of issues involved mean that further macro-driven volatility in 2012 is to be expected. For the long-term investor, such volatility can present opportunities to pick up equities and bonds of companies that have good growth potential.

–	SIMON FLOOD
	Chief Investment Officer, Lion Global Investors

» Read more about the wealth expert

Economic growth looks set to weaken in 2012. Share prices appear to have discounted weaker earnings expectations, but may not have been fully priced in the worst case scenario. If the outlook deteriorates significantly, earnings estimates will need to be shaved further. Against this backdrop, confidence is likely to remain fragile and volatility will persist in 2012, until signs of a sustainable improvement emerge.

Recently, the Singapore government projected that the local economy will slow down sharply from five per cent in 2011, to one to three per cent for 2012. It noted that there are significant downside risks to growth, depending on the sovereign debt situation in the advanced economies. The higher risks of a global recession could cast a pall on the local bourse in the short term.

The silver lining is that the recent sell-down has brought valuations to reasonable levels. For the Singapore market, the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) is currently trading at around 1.2 times price-to-book (P/B), which is fairly low and seems to discount unfavourable news and challenging market conditions ahead.

At the height of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, the corresponding P/B was as low as one time (or an average of 1.6 times for 2008). The current 1.2 times P/B for the STI is also lower than the recent four-year average of 1.53 times.



In view of the global uncertainties and the lack of investor confidence, the preference is for quality and safer assets. Investors will demand to be rewarded more for taking risks. Given this backdrop, we favour the Telecommunications and high dividend yielding defensive stocks.

Telecommunications aside, other sectors we continue to favour in 2012 are the Healthcare and Oil & Gas sectors.

Our stock picks for 2012 are Biosensors, Cache Logistics, DBS Group, Frasers Centrepoint, Golden Agri-Resources, Keppel Corp, M1, Raffles Medical, Sembcorp Marine, SingTel, StarHub and UOB.

–	CARMEN LEE
	Head, Investment Research, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Sovereign debt issues, natural disasters, political changes and policy action from central banks dominated the headlines in 2011.

On the sovereign debt front, the Euro-zone debt crisis worsened, requiring European leaders to announce further measures to stem the bleeding. Rating agencies also spooked markets by downgrading the U.S. government’s credit rating from AAA to AA, and Greece’s rating to junk status.

Once again, major central banks had to go to extraordinary lengths to salvage market confidence. In the United States, the Federal Reserve launched “Operation Twist” when its second set of quantitative easing measures ended in June 2011. The European Central Bank also began buying government bonds in the secondary market, and offered three-year loans after a second bailout package for Greece and the establishment of financial stability mechanisms failed to prevent the contagion from spreading.

Five major global central banks from the United States, Europe and Japan also extended U.S. dollar swap arrangements to ease funding pressures and lowered their pricing by 50 basis points. Central banks in the U.K. and Japan also increased their respective asset purchase programmes to boost liquidity.

Even in Asia, the Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate by a significant 75 basis points while the Thai and Singapore central banks began monetary policy easing. China also cut its reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points in 2011. These moves suggest that the global economy remains on a very fragile footing.

Looking ahead, several headwinds will continue to persist in 2012. The slowing global economy, de-leveraging by governments and banks in advanced economies, and the risk of policy mistakes will continue to pose uncertainties.



Given the uncertain global outlook, short-term interest rates will continue to remain low, lending support to shorter-dated bonds. However, capital flows into Emerging Markets will be fleet-footed, depending on investment risk appetite.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

In the early part of 2012, the U.S. dollar is likely to find strength from the continued woes and uncertainties in the Euro-zone region and fears about a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the global economy. In fact, we expect the Euro to remain a relative underperformer among G10 countries in the first quarter of the year.

However, looking further out into 2012, any signs of a resolution to the Euro-zone debt crisis and greater fiscal stability in the region may help boost risk appetite among investors and traders. This could in turn weigh on the greenback and cause the weak dollar story to re-emerge, putting a floor on other major currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.

Elsewhere, economic growth in Asia may weaken in the early part of the year due to developments in Europe and the U.S., and this could lead to more monetary policy easing by the region’s central banks. This, coupled with greater risk aversion and the stronger U.S. dollar, could weigh on Asian currencies in the first quarter of 2012.

Consequently, we continue to refrain from being overly aggressive about Asian currencies for now, despite the region’s relatively superior economic fundamentals compared to its peers in the West.



Should Asian currencies rebound, we expect the Singapore dollar, the Indonesian rupiah and the Korean won to outperform their regional peers.

On a related note, China is seen rebalancing its policy orientation towards growth as its economy looks headed for a slowdown. However, this might not entail the government allowing a depreciation of the Renminbi, as implied in currency markets. In fact, we continue to expect a 3 to 3.5 per cent appreciation of the Chinese currency against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2012, in contrast to current market expectation for a slight depreciation of the Renminbi over the next 12 months.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Like many other risky investments, the Commodity sector performed poorly in 2011 as investors de-risked their portfolios due to uncertainties about the Euro-zone region and the global economic outlook.

Looking ahead into 2012, global markets remain sensitive to developments in Europe and the outlook for the global economy, both of which still look highly uncertain at this juncture.

Gold price, which peaked at US$1,923/ounce in 2011, fell sharply in the fourth quarter of the year due to disappointment about the outcome of the recent European Union summit, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s failure to undertake further quantitative easing measures, and the possibility of more credit rating downgrades across the Euro-zone. These factors boosted the U.S. dollar, which in turn weighed on the price of gold.

Gold also fell due to investors’ need to take profit and raise cash to cover losses on other investments like equities and to meet fund redemptions. Margin restrictions on various commodity exchanges were another catalyst for the fall in gold price.

Going forward, positive medium-term fundamentals should help gold price recover. Rising affluence in China and India should support the demand for jewellery, while low interest rates and the potential for further purchases by central banks augur well for gold price.

The key threat to gold price is an increase in real interest rates, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold – something that is unlikely to take place anytime soon, as the Fed has pledged to keep rates low until mid-2013.



Gold aside, the 2012 outlook for other commodities looks poor for now, given the uncertain global economic outlook and fears of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China’s economy.

However, we remain positive on the Commodity sector in the medium term, as the structural factors underpinning commodities like oil, industrial metals and agricultural commodities, remain intact.

For those with a strong risk appetite, we see any sharp pullback in commodity prices in 2012 as an opportunity to accumulate for the medium term.

–	VASU MENON
	Head, Content & Research, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before you make any investment decision, please seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager, you should carefully consider whether the product is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

A copy of the prospectus of the Fund(s) is available and may be obtained from the Fund Manager, or any of its approved distributors. Potential investors should read the prospectus for details on the Fund(s) before deciding whether to subscribe for or purchase units in the Fund(s). The value of the units in the Fund(s) and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Please refer to the prospectus of the Fund(s) for the name of the Fund Manager and investment objectives of the Fund(s).

OCBC Bank may have alliances with the product providers, for which OCBC Bank may receive a fee. Product providers may also be Related Persons, who may be receiving fees from investors. OCBC Bank and the Related Persons may also perform or seek to perform broking and other financial services for the product providers.

OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report. By buying Dual Currency Returns, you are giving us the right to repay you at a future date in a different currency from the currency in which you made your original investment, even if you would prefer not to be paid in this currency at that time. Dual Currency Returns are affected by foreign exchange rates, which may affect how much you get back from your investment. You may receive less than you originally invested.

Foreign exchange control restrictions may apply to the foreign currencies linked to your Dual Currency Returns. As a result, we may repay your investment and interest in a different currency. You may receive less than you originally invested when the amount of this different currency is converted back to the base currency (the currency you originally invested). You may be able to get information on foreign exchange control restrictions, if any, for each foreign currency offered in relation to Dual Currency Returns, from the relevant monetary, regulatory or other governmental authorities for that currency.

We will not end Dual Currency Returns before the maturity date (the date they are due to end). You may, however, withdraw the amount you originally invested before the maturity date. If you do this, please remember that you will have to pay any charges that apply which are calculated based on the amount of time remaining before the maturity date, as well as current market conditions relating to strike prices, foreign exchange rates and changes in the underlying foreign exchange pair. These charges may mean that you get back much less than you originally invested. Please feel free to approach your relationship manager for details of the procedures and charges that apply if you withdraw your Dual Currency Returns investment before the maturity date.

Foreign currency investments or deposits are subject to inherent exchange rate fluctuations that may provide opportunities and risks. Earnings on foreign currency investments or deposits would be dependent on the exchanges rates prevalent at the time of their maturity if any conversion takes place. Exchange controls may be applicable from time to time to certain foreign currencies. Any pre-termination costs will be deducted from your deposit.

No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statement regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same.

TThe contents hereof may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank's written consent.

Although most fund managers polled have turned more guarded about the investment outlook compared to six months ago, 82 per cent of those who responded do not expect the economic woes in the Euro-zone and the U.S. to spark a double-dip global recession in 2012.

For one, Lion Global Investors opined that it is neither expecting a double-dip recession nor looking at strong growth. Recent better-than-expected U.S. economic data as well as Asian governments’ capacity to ease policy are positives but the overall strength of global growth is likely to be capped. Combined sovereign and bank deleveraging in the Euro-zone will inevitably impact the world economy, including Asia.

Aberdeen Asset Management also expects growth in the U.S. and Europe to stay very subdued, but thinks that the world economy should be able to avoid a double-dip recession.

Prudential Asset Management, on the other hand, believes that the “protracted issues in the U.S. economy along with the serious debt issues in Europe pose a threat to market stability and global growth.”

67 per cent of respondents believe that the Euro area will not break up and the Euro will not collapse.

UOB Asset Management, for instance, believes that breaking up the monetary union is too costly, and it expects European leaders to “work towards fiscal union and avoid a break-up of the Euro.”

BNP Paribas Investment Partners is also of a similar view, but cautioned that “as a solution for the structural problems has not been found yet, the situation may get worse before improving.”

Schroder Investment Management is less sanguine, and believes that it is important to restructure Greek debt in an orderly manner to prevent a contagion from spreading to other peripheral economies and to provide support to the banking system.

Despite the recent volatility, more than half of the fund managers surveyed still chose equities over other assets.

Henderson Global Investors said it favours equities because it is “the asset class that has most discounted a weak outlook and therefore offers the most upside potential.”

Fidelity Worldwide Investment said that within equities, investors should focus on high-quality, defensive companies with a stable and reliable earnings stream, which pays high and sustainable dividends.

38 per cent of all respondents thought that bonds should have a place in an investor’s portfolio. ING Investment Management, for instance, said it expects positive returns in the fixed income space, especially in “spread” products like emerging market debt, (both hard currency and local currency), as well as global high-yield bonds or Senior Bank Loans.

A significant number of the fund managers polled identified emerging market bonds and global high-yield bonds as their most preferred fixed income segments.

One fund house that favours emerging market bonds is Amundi Asset Management, which believes emerging market bonds will remain attractive. Among these, Asian local currency bonds, in particular, may benefit from upcoming interest rate cuts.

Among equity markets, most continue to choose Asia ex-Japan as their favourite regional equity market, while China was singled out by 56 per cent of the respondents as the most promising market.

BlackRock, for one, likes China because its equity valuations are attractive and its economy looks set for a soft-landing. In addition, BlackRock also sees that there is significant scope for China to carry out monetary policy easing and fiscal expansion.

Among the developed markets, the U.S. emerged as the most favoured equity market. Henderson Global Investors said that it is most optimistic about the U.S. equities, which it deems defensive, and expects Wall Street to perform well in 2012. The fund management company also said that the U.S. Federal Reserve has a large tool kit, which it is prepared to use if the economy turns weak.

75 per cent of all respondents see Asian currencies heading higher against the U.S. dollar in 2012.

First State Investments believes that currencies of Asian countries that boast strong finances are likely to benefit from a weak U.S. dollar. The fund management company believes that the greenback will weaken further, given the Fed’s zero-interest rate policy that will likely run through to mid-2013, or even 2014.

Templeton Asset Management said that it continues to hold true to its conviction that Asian currencies have long-term potential against majors like the U.S. dollar, Euro and the Yen.

Half the fund managers polled continue to hold a positive view on the commodity sector, while 56 per cent named gold as the most promising commodity to invest in over the next twelve months.

Lion Global Investors believes that while the gold price will not repeat its previous strong performance, it will continue to stay at high levels. Given the continued uncertainty in the global macro environment, buyers are likely to return to the market with any price pullback.

Allianz Global Investors also favours gold. The fund house opined: “We continue to see the potential for long-term upside in gold prices, as we expect more rapid monetisation of government debt and view gold as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.”

It is hardly a surprise that all the fund managers polled see the deterioration of the Euro-zone debt crisis as a key risk for investors in the coming year.

APS Asset Management said that the economic woes in the U.S and Europe may worsen and continue to affect sentiment in Asian markets, but it expects economic growth in Asia to remain respectable.

Deutsche Asset Management also believes that the situation in Europe “needs to be watched closely” and see youth unemployment, especially in Europe, as a significant problem.

Total number of fund managers polled: 16

1.	Do you think the economic woes in the U.S. and Euro-zone will worsen and drive the world economy into a double-dip recession in the first-half of 2012?
	No 9 Yes 2
2.	In your view, will the problems in the Euro-zone worsen, possibly leading to a break-up of the region or even a collapse of the euro?
	No 6 Yes 2 Neutral 1
3.	Which asset classes do you favour most for 2012?
	Equities 9 Bonds 6 Gold 2
4.	On equities, which regional equity markets (e.g. Emerging Markets, Asia ex-Japan, Japan, Europe, U.S., etc.) are you most optimistic about?
	Asia Ex-Japan 6 U.S. 5 Japan 3 Emerging Markets 2 Euro-zone 2 U.K. 1
5.	Which Asia ex-Japan equity markets do you favour most?
	China 9 Indonesia 5 ASEAN 3 India 2 Korea 2 Singapore 2 Thailand 2 Hong Kong 1 Southeast Asia 1
6.	On bonds, which fixed income segments (e.g. Asian bonds, Emerging Market bonds, high-yield bonds, U.S. bonds, European bonds, etc.) are you most optimistic about?
	Emerging Market Bonds 8 Global High-Yield Bonds 7 Asian Bonds 4 U.S. Bonds 1 U.S. High-Yield Bonds 1
7.	Overall, where do you see the most attractive investment opportunities?
	Emerging Market Bonds 4 Equities 3 Emerging Market Equities 3 Asian High-Dividend Equities 3 Global High-Yield Bonds 3 High-Dividend Equities 2 Asia ex-Japan Equities 2 U.S. Equities 2 China Equities 1 Bonds 1 Asian Bonds 1 U.S. High-Yield Bonds 1
8.	Going forward, what are your views on Asian currencies vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar? Do you see the greenback heading higher against other major currencies in 2012?
	Asian currencies to head higher against USD 12 Asian currencies to head lower against USD 1 Dollar to head higher against major currencies 4 Dollar to head lower against major currencies 3
9.	Are you positive about the outlook for the commodity sector? Which commodities are you most positive about? Do you expect gold to trend higher over the next 12 months?
	Yes, positive 8 No, not positive 2 Cautious 2 Positive about gold 9 Positive about soft commodities 4 Positive about base metals 3 Positive about crude oil 2 Yes, gold will go higher 7 No, gold won’t go higher 0
10.	What are the key risk factors investors should bear in mind for 2012?
	Euro-zone debt crisis deteriorates 14 U.S. economy slows down / enters recession 6 China's experiences hard-landing 3 Asia experiences economic slowdown 2 Global recession 1 Soaring commodity prices 1

Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, please seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before you make a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from a financial adviser, you should consider whether the product in question is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into a transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other investment or securities related services for the corporations whose securities are mentioned in this report as well as other parties generally. No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward looking statement regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same. The contents hereof are considered proprietary information and may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank's written consent.

Investing In Volatile Markets
The markets continue to be at a heightened state of uncertainty, so staggering your purchases and diversifying your investments are key to reducing downside risk. Those who are keen to invest now may consider the LionGlobal New Target Return Fund. This fund will invest in bonds with good credit ratings, bond funds with good income and equity funds with good dividend payouts. The fund also aims to provide potential positive returns, and is therefore designed to manage key risks such as market, interest rate, default and currency risks.

Equity Funds
While we are cautious about equities for the short term, Asia and Emerging Markets enjoy superior fundamentals compared to many developed markets, and they can offer opportunities for those with the stomach for risk and a medium-term horizon. Here are three equity funds to consider:

• First State Dividend Advantage (exposure to Asian companies with steady cash flows and strong cash balances)
• Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund (exposure to a diversified portfolio of Asia-Pacific equities excluding Japanese equities)
• Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund (exposure to emerging stock markets worldwide or companies with significant activities in Emerging Markets)

Bond Funds
The uncertain investment outlook and the need for prudent asset allocation necessitate some representation of bonds in investors' portfolios. Here are a couple of bond funds to consider:

• PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond Fund
• Franklin Templeton Global Total Return Fund

Alternative Investments
Man AHL Trend SGD (a managed futures fund) can profit from trending markets and can help to stabilise portfolios. Investors looking to introduce less-correlated assets into their portfolios may wish to consider this.

Stocks
For equity-linked investments, we continue to advocate sectors that are more defensive in nature (Telecommunication and Transportation), companies that have paid consistent dividends and those with strong balance sheets – enabling them to make acquisitions and buy-back shares when opportunities arise. Starhub, SingTel and Comfort Delgro are some names in Singapore to consider.

For U.S. equities, we like Coca-Cola for its global footprint, with recent drink volumes proving to be encouraging, especially in emerging countries. Visa is another name to consider for such a global play.

Currencies
Support for the greenback should continue in the short term, given global uncertainties, especially in Europe.

The recent run-up of the Australian and New Zealand dollars has created investment opportunities at high levels for market participants through Dual Currency Returns or via foreign exchange markets. Investors may want to consider converting these holdings to the Singapore dollar at S$1.3000 and S$0.9850 levels respectively, especially if they are sitting on profits at these currency levels. We continue to be positive on these currencies over the medium term, and would want to gradually accumulate them at lower levels.

In Asia, the offshore Renminbi experienced unprecedented volatility in the past few weeks, before returning to levels last seen in August. While China's economic growth has moderated, it remains the harbinger of growth for the region. Hence, investors looking to ride on China's domestic growth story with a long-term horizon may want to consider the offshore Renminbi on pullbacks.

–	MICHAEL TAN
	Head, Premier Wealth Advisory, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Beleaguered markets are yearning for a comprehensive solution to the European sovereign debt crisis but unfortunately, macro conditions suggest that the economic picture remains opaque and as such, volatility will continue, possibly through to early 2012, with prices gyrating within a broad range.

The European sovereign debt crisis has escalated with soaring Italian and Spanish bond yields. At the point of writing, the “Grand Plan” announced by the European leaders in late October still lacks details.

Yet, our base case remains that the core European countries' political will to keep some form of Europe together, and to avoid a repeat of the Lehman crisis, will ultimately prove stronger than their objection to bailouts and debt monetization by the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the road to a final resolution could be extremely bumpy.

Even in Asia, we expect to feel the effects in the real economy in terms of a decline in demand for our exports, and credit conditions will be tighter as the European banks deleverage, leading to a higher cost of capital.

Concurrently, there continue to be bright spots, especially in Asia. Inflation is rolling over in the region, and Asian governments have the capacity to ease policy if needed. This means that the volatility caused by macro conditions may present good opportunities for long-term investors, especially those focused on Asia.



Our approach is to continue to look for opportunities in equities and bonds of companies that have good growth potential into the medium term, such as Asian domestic demand-oriented companies with strong balance sheets and good cash flows.

We will look to pick-up these bargains in the midst of the volatility, even as we wait for the herald of good news from the developed world.

–	SIMON FLOOD
	Chief Investment Officer, Lion Global Investors

» Read more about the wealth expert

The third-quarter corporate reporting season failed to excite as earnings were fairly mixed, with more companies failing to meet market expectations versus the last two years' trend of better-than-expected results. As the fourth quarter is traditionally a slower quarter due to the year-end holiday and festivities, developments on the corporate front are unlikely to be the catalyst for markets to recover in the near term.

Given the projected slowdown in major global economies, Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised its growth forecast for the local economy to 1 to 3 per cent for 2012, down from the long-term target of 3 to 5 per cent.



At the lower end of the band, the Singapore market is well supported by undemanding valuations, with the STI trading at only around 12 times of next year's earnings with a decent dividend yield of more than 3 per cent. At the upper end of the band, gains are likely to be capped by global uncertainties which have affected investor confidence.

We continue to advocate the more defensive plays in the market and this will include sectors such as telecommunications and the higher-dividend yielding defensive industries.

At current levels, banking stocks are also starting to look attractive as global concerns over banks' earnings, especially in Europe, have dragged down the share prices of the still well-capitalised and strong asset-backed Singapore banks as well.

The Oil & Gas sector remains one of our favoured sectors for its strong order books, despite the current lull in orders. Earnings visibility remains good for this sector.

Our core favourites remain – Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine, SingTel, M1, Starhub and Golden Agri-Resources. At current levels, the banks are also worth accumulating for longer-term investors.

–	CARMEN LEE
	Head, Investment Research, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

While fears of a double-dip recession for the U.S. economy appear to have subsided, the expected failure of the U.S. super-committee to reach an agreement on budget cuts ahead of the 23^rd November deadline has set the stage for automatic spending cuts of US$1.2 trillion in 2013. Rating agencies took a benign view of this failure, with Moody's and S&P affirming their ratings, while Fitch warned it would “likely result in negative rating action” which carries a more than 50 per cent chance of downgrade during the next two years.

On the Euro-zone front, markets remain in turmoil as Germany remains adamantly against a European Central Bank (ECB) backstop. Moody's also warned about France's AAA rating outlook, even though Moody's and S&P currently have a stable outlook on French credit. If France loses its AAA rating, this would also affect the European Financial Stability Facility's rating.

A mild recession scenario for the Euro-zone economy in 2012 looks increasingly likely. The Deutsche Bundesbank has downgraded Germany's 2012 growth forecast from 1.8 per cent to just 0.5 to 1 per cent. The ECB has stepped up its purchases of Spanish and Italian bonds, and should deliver further rate cuts at its 8th December meeting to mitigate downside risks.

In Asia, third-quarter economic growth data were mixed – Taiwan and Hong Kong saw growth rates slow from the second to the third quarter in line with China, whereas Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand saw growth rates accelerate, which likely reflected Japan's post-disaster rebound.



Indonesia's central bank cut its rate by another 50 basis points to 6 per cent on 10th November, while the Australian central bank cut its rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent on 1st November, whereas the Korean and Malaysian central banks are neutral for now.

As growth prospects moderate next year, continue to expect further monetary policy accommodation and a more benign interest-rate environment.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Global risk aversion is threatening to boil over again, with little end in sight for the Euro-zone debt crisis. Liquidity and funding stress in the wholesale markets are also at significantly elevated levels.

Problems in the peripheral Euro-zone nations are gradually affecting investor perception towards the core Euro-zone countries and Emerging Markets. Investors will look towards the European Union summit on 9^th December for greater clarity regarding the debt crisis.

For now, developments in the Euro-zone area have dampened risk appetite and could weigh on global growth.

In response to the growth concerns and continued global uncertainties, several global central banks have loosened monetary policy and signalled further easing in the coming months.



Going forward, investors are expected to remain sensitive to any negative news emanating from the Euro-zone and the United States.

Despite enjoying better underlying economic fundamentals than their counterparts in Europe and the United States, Asia's currency markets have not been spared from the negative consequences of a slowing global economy, weak investor risk appetite, monetary easing by some central banks in the region and slower net foreign capital inflows into the region's financial markets.

Meanwhile, expectations of some loosening in China's monetary policy have started to surface, as signs emerge that the Chinese economy is slowing down. However, we remain positive on the Chinese currency via Non-Deliverable Forward Contracts (used for a currency when there is no orderly forward market).

In the current environment, we continue to refrain from being aggressively short on the U.S. dollar versus its Asian counterparts and instead, engage in relative value propositions like going long on the Indonesian rupiah versus the Indian rupee.

Elsewhere, we are also tactically long on the U.S. dollar versus the Singapore dollar, given continued uncertainties on the global front.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

The commodity sector has weakened, with growing concerns about Europe's debt crisis and fears of a slowdown in the global economy.



Gold price inched back towards the US$1,800 per ounce level in early November before weakening, as investors were spooked by renewed fears about the European debt crisis. Going forward, fundamentals remain supportive of higher prices. Jewellery demand should be well supported by the growing affluence in India and China, while the low interest-rate environment and purchases by central banks have also helped to underpin the price of gold.

For oil prices, we see them staying firm. Despite uncertainties about the global economic outlook, global oil demand growth forecasts from the major forecasting agencies were largely unchanged in their November market reports compared to October estimates. Longer-term factors like global oil demand from Emerging Markets and the ability of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to collectively reduce supply should continue to provide price support.

Industrial metal prices have softened on mounting concerns about Europe's debt crisis. Nevertheless, latest trade data showed that China's copper imports rose for a fifth conservative month, suggesting that China may have moved into a restocking phase, giving the industrial metal some support. Among industrial metals, aluminum continues to outperform its peers and we see this trend continuing.

Both corn and soybean prices hit a low recently on concerns that Europe's debt crisis may slow economies worldwide, eroding demand for crops used in food, animal feed and biofuel. Although we remain positive on these soft commodities in the long term, given tight supply and rising demand from Emerging Markets, we remain cautious about the near term outlook as their prices could weaken further, having rallied earlier this year.

–	VASU MENON
	Head, Content & Research, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before you make any investment decision, please seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager, you should carefully consider whether the product is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

The investment objective of the LionGlobal New Target Return Fund (the “Fund”) aims to provide investors with capital preservation and a positive return over a five-year investment horizon. The Fund will invest in bonds and other debt securities, and stock and other equity securities, of companies primarily in the Asian region. A copy of the prospectus of the Fund(s) is available and may be obtained from the Fund Manager, or any of its approved distributors. Potential investors should read the prospectus for details on the Fund(s) before deciding whether to subscribe for or purchase units in the Fund(s). The value of the units in the Fund(s) and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Please refer to the prospectus of the Fund(s) for the name of the Fund Manager and investment objectives of the Fund(s).

OCBC Bank may have alliances with the product providers, for which OCBC Bank may receive a fee. Product providers may also be Related Persons, who may be receiving fees from investors. OCBC Bank and the Related Persons may also perform or seek to perform broking and other financial services for the product providers.

OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report. By buying Dual Currency Returns, you are giving us the right to repay you at a future date in a different currency from the currency in which you made your original investment, even if you would prefer not to be paid in this currency at that time. Dual Currency Returns are affected by foreign exchange rates, which may affect how much you get back from your investment. You may receive less than you originally invested.

Foreign exchange control restrictions may apply to the foreign currencies linked to your Dual Currency Returns. As a result, we may repay your investment and interest in a different currency. You may receive less than you originally invested when the amount of this different currency is converted back to the base currency (the currency you originally invested). You may be able to get information on foreign exchange control restrictions, if any, for each foreign currency offered in relation to Dual Currency Returns, from the relevant monetary, regulatory or other governmental authorities for that currency.

We will not end Dual Currency Returns before the maturity date (the date they are due to end). You may, however, withdraw the amount you originally invested before the maturity date. If you do this, please remember that you will have to pay any charges that apply which are calculated based on the amount of time remaining before the maturity date, as well as current market conditions relating to strike prices, foreign exchange rates and changes in the underlying foreign exchange pair. These charges may mean that you get back much less than you originally invested. Please feel free to approach your relationship manager for details of the procedures and charges that apply if you withdraw your Dual Currency Returns investment before the maturity date.

Foreign currency investments or deposits are subject to inherent exchange rate fluctuations that may provide opportunities and risks. Earnings on foreign currency investments or deposits would be dependent on the exchanges rates prevalent at the time of their maturity if any conversion takes place. Exchange controls may be applicable from time to time to certain foreign currencies. Any pre-termination costs will be deducted from your deposit.

No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statement regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same.

The contents hereof may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank's written consent.

How Best To Invest During Uncertain Times
Given the volatile markets, investors with a strong risk appetite who are looking to capitalise on sharp pullbacks should stagger their purchases over the next 12 to 18 months.

For those who are not keen to stagger their purchases, the recently launched LionGlobal New Target Return Fund is an investment worth considering. With its emphasis on investing in bonds that have good credit ratings, bond funds with good income and equity funds with good dividend payouts, this fund aims to provide potential positive returns and is therefore designed to manage key risks such as market, interest rate, default and currency risks.

Equity Funds
While we are cautious on equities for the short term, the fact remains that Asia and Emerging Markets enjoy superior fundamentals compared to many developed markets, and can offer opportunities for those with the stomach for risk and a medium-term horizon.

• First State Dividend Advantage
  (exposure to high dividend yielding Asian equities)
• Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund
• Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund

Bond Funds
For prudent asset allocation, investors should always have some representation of bonds in their portfolios.

• PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond Fund
• Franklin Templeton Global Total Return Fund

Alternative Investment
Man AHL Trend SGD (a managed futures fund) has profited from trending markets and can help to stabilise portfolios. Investors looking to introduce less correlated assets into their portfolios may wish to consider it.

Stocks To Consider
For equity-linked investments, we continue to focus on defensive names like Starhub and SingTel for their strong cash balances and decent dividend payouts.

For U.S. equities, we like Coca-Cola for its global revenue diversification and its international presence, with recent drink volumes proving to be encouraging.

Currencies To Consider
The present climate still calls for investors to stay nimble, as market swings are likely to be headline-driven.

The recent run-up of the Australian and New Zealand dollars has created investment opportunities at high levels for market participants through Dual Currency Returns or via foreign exchange markets. Investors can consider converting their holdings to the Singapore dollar at S$1.3200 and S$1.0500 respectively, especially if they are sitting on profits at these levels.

IIn Asia, we have seen the offshore Renminbi experiencing unprecedented volatility in the past few weeks, before returning to levels seen in August. While China's economic growth has slowed down in recent months, we do not see a hard landing and expect China's economy to continue growing at a healthy pace, boosted by domestic demand despite a potentially weaker external environment. Hence, investors with a long-term horizon who are looking to ride on the Chinese domestic growth story may want to consider the offshore Renminbi on slight pullbacks.

–	MICHAEL TAN
	Head, Premier Wealth Advisory, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

The outlook for global markets continues to be clouded by the uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis and the global economy. European authorities have displayed more urgency in looking for a solution, and some progress has been made in the past two months. However, a definitive resolution that would end the crisis once and for all, bringing the peripheral European countries' bond yields permanently back to earlier levels, remains elusive.

On the economic front, better-than-expected U.S. economic data over the past month have alleviated fears of a doubledip recession. However, structural problems continue to weigh on the U.S. recovery, as does the risk of recession in Europe, where the financial and public sectors are deleveraging simultaneously.



For markets, these macro conditions suggest that volatility will continue, with prices gyrating within a very broad range. Given that markets had already fallen very hard in August and September, we cannot rule out the possibility of a fierce rally in response to positive news flow out of Europe (even if the solutions are only stop-gap measures), better-thanexpected economic data and/or further policy easing in Asia. On the other hand, significant hurdles to comprehensive solutions mean that further sell-offs upon disappointment are equally as likely. Our strategy in such market conditions is to identify various levels at which we would purchase stocks upon dips, as well as levels at which we could sell into strength. As for bonds, we see good value in convertible bonds and high-yield bonds, but sound credit analysis is important in selecting investments.

–	SIMON FLOOD
	Chief Investment Officer, Lion Global Investors

» Read more about the wealth expert

The sharp sell-off in global equity markets in September and an equally sharp rebound in October reflects the volatility that has come to characterise equity markets in recent months.

While European leaders are showing greater willingness to do more to tackle the region's problems, there are no quick fixes to the underlying deep-seated problems, meaning that volatility is likely to remain a fixture and investors will need to brace themselves for more bumpiness in the coming months.

The European crisis, the weak U.S. economy and fears of an economic slowdown in China have led to concerns about the global economic outlook, threatening to weigh on corporate earnings as well.

Despite this, we still see several pockets of opportunity in the local bourse. For one, the telecommunication sector, which accounts for a sizeable 11 per cent of the benchmark ST Index, should still see single-digit growth with healthy dividend payouts.

Despite a challenging environment, the outlook for the banking sector also remains healthy with a combined projected net profit of S$7.8 billion for this year (based on consensus forecasts from Bloomberg), up 3 per cent from last year. On price weakness, banking stocks are ideal longer term investments as we do not expect a repeat of the Asian financial crisis, and expect non-performing loans to remain manageable at the 1 to -2 per cent level. Local banks are also supported by strong asset quality.

For the Oil & Gas sector, there were concerns of a slowdown in orders. However, this has eased after Sembcorp Marine recently announced a US$100 million order, which indicates that the sector's outlook remains healthy.

Looking ahead, headwinds remain in the global market and will continue to hurt confidence on the local bourse from time to time.



We continue to favour blue chips and our core buys are Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine, SingTel, M1, Starhub and Golden Agri-Resources.

–	CARMEN LEE
	Head, Investment Research, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

While economic data out of the Euro-zone continues to point to an impending slowdown in the region, especially in key economies like Germany; concerns over a U.S. double-dip recession have abated a little due to some better-thanexpected economic reports out of the United States.

Euro-zone leaders have shown greater willingness to tackle the region's problems, but the progress towards a credible resolution has been slow and the region could still face more challenges going forward. Given this backdrop, the European Central Bank recently held its key policy rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent, but signaled a neutral stance ahead of Mario Draghi taking office as President of the European Central Bank on 1^st November 2011.

Other clouds on the horizon included growing signs of an economic slowdown in China and the United State's vulnerability to spillover effects from the Euro-zone crisis. In fact, several Federal Reserve officials have recently been leaning towards more monetary easing, including a third round of quantitative easing.



In Indonesia for example, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points recently.

In Singapore, the central bank recently indicated that it would lean towards a more gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar and warned that next year's growth rate could come in below the economy's potential of 3 to 5 per cent.

While the Korean and Thai central banks kept interest rates unchanged after their latest policy meetings, the rhetoric has turned more guarded if not outright dovish. Only China's central bank remains on the alert for elevated inflationary pressures, especially higher pork prices, but its Premier has also acknowledged that the property sector has reached a "critical point".

Overall, Asian central banks in general appear to be taking a more cautious stance, focusing on growth, amid expectations that inflation may have peaked or is in the process of peaking.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

After the sell-off in late September and early October, the major currencies have rebounded and somewhat stabilised against the U.S. dollar. Despite this, risk aversion remains fairly high as evidenced by the elevated spreads between the bond yields of the peripheral Euro-zone nations and German government bonds, still-weak commodity prices and continued funding pressure faced by European banks.

As for the outlook for the global economy, leading indicators point to a further slowdown in the coming months. Consequently, central banks in developed economies and Asia have become more concerned about growth rather than inflation. The recent surprise interest-rate cut by Bank Negara Indonesia is a case in point. Other central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 due to concerns about inflation, now appear to be leaning towards either holding rates steady or even cutting them if necessary, given the uncertain global outlook.

Going forward, the Euro-zone is likely to remain in the spotlight in the coming weeks with markets on the lookout for a resolution to the region's problems.

While we were previously bearish on the major currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, we have now turned more neutral on them (with a view to be tactically positive on any further rallies due to a return in risk appetite). The only exception is the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the Japanese yen - we are bullish on greenback against the Japanese currency, given the higher interest rates in the U.S. and the Japanese government's discomfort with the yen's excessive strength.



Nevertheless, we have not turned excessively bullish on Asian currencies vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as risk aversion could return to weigh on these currencies as the outlook for the Euro-zone region is still uncertain.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Commodities like many other riskier asset classes have experienced a very bumpy ride over the past two months.

In September, they fell sharply on the back of fears about the Euro-zone debt crisis, as well as the unwinding of U.S. dollar carry trades. In October, they rallied as fears eased and optimism grew that Euro-zone leaders would come up with a credible plan to ease investors' worries about the region.

Going forward, while we are positive on the medium-term outlook for commodities, the short-term outlook is less certain, and remains contingent on how developments in Europe will impact investors' risk appetite. China's economic prospect is another determinant, especially in the short term, given its recent slowdown in economic growth.



As for oil, the International Energy Agency has revised its global oil demand growth forecast down due to the weaker economic outlook, which should prevent any spike in prices near term. Longer-term factors like demand from Emerging Markets and declining OPEC spare capacity should continue to support prices going forward.

Among base metals, aluminum continues to outperform, but going forward, a lot depends on China's economic prospects.

Among soft commodities, corn has been one of the better performers, returning more than 30 per cent so far this year, supported by downgrades to U.S. corn production due to poor weather. Although we remain positive on corn and soybeans in the long-term, given tight supply and rising demand from Emerging Markets, we remain cautious in the near term as their prices could be peaking from the run-up this year.

However, we are positive on gold, which saw a sharp correction recently due to the surge in the U.S. dollar, which caused carry trades to unwind. Going forward, the underlying fundamentals for gold are positive, and greater investment and consumer demand for gold against a backdrop of tight supply should help the precious metal to head higher in due course.

–	VASU MENON
	Head, Content & Research, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before you make any investment decision, please seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager, you should carefully consider whether the product is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

The investment objective of the LionGlobal New Target Return Fund (the “Fund”) aims to provide investors with capital preservation and a positive return over a five-year investment horizon. The Fund will invest in bonds and other debt securities, and stock and other equity securities, of companies primarily in the Asian region. A copy of the prospectus of the Fund(s) is available and may be obtained from the Fund Manager, or any of its approved distributors. Potential investors should read the prospectus for details on the Fund(s) before deciding whether to subscribe for or purchase units in the Fund(s). The value of the units in the Fund(s) and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Please refer to the prospectus of the Fund(s) for the name of the Fund Manager and investment objectives of the Fund(s).

OCBC Bank may have alliances with the product providers, for which OCBC Bank may receive a fee. Product providers may also be Related Persons, who may be receiving fees from investors. OCBC Bank and the Related Persons may also perform or seek to perform broking and other financial services for the product providers. OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report.

By buying Dual Currency Returns, you are giving us the right to repay you at a future date in a different currency from the currency in which you made your original investment, even if you would prefer not to be paid in this currency at that time. Dual Currency Returns are affected by foreign exchange rates, which may affect how much you get back from your investment. You may receive less than you originally invested.

Foreign exchange control restrictions may apply to the foreign currencies linked to your Dual Currency Returns. As a result, we may repay your investment and interest in a different currency. You may receive less than you originally invested when the amount of this different currency is converted back to the base currency (the currency you originally invested). You may be able to get information on foreign exchange control restrictions, if any, for each foreign currency offered in relation to Dual Currency Returns, from the relevant monetary, regulatory or other governmental authorities for that currency.

We will not end Dual Currency Returns before the maturity date (the date they are due to end). You may, however, withdraw the amount you originally invested before the maturity date. If you do this, please remember that you will have to pay any charges that apply which are calculated based on the amount of time remaining before the maturity date, as well as current market conditions relating to strike prices, foreign exchange rates and changes in the underlying foreign exchange pair. These charges may mean that you get back much less than you originally invested. Please feel free to approach your relationship manager for details of the procedures and charges that apply if you withdraw your Dual Currency Returns investment before the maturity date.

Foreign currency investments or deposits are subject to inherent exchange rate fluctuations that may provide opportunities and risks. Earnings on foreign currency investments or deposits would be dependent on the exchanges rates prevalent at the time of their maturity if any conversion takes place. Exchange controls may be applicable from time to time to certain foreign currencies. Any pre-termination costs will be deducted from your deposit.

No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statement regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same.

The contents hereof may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank's written consent.

How Best To Invest During Uncertain Times
Given the volatile markets, investors looking to capitalise on sharp pullbacks should stagger their purchases.

Equity funds
While we are cautious on equities for the short term, the fact remains that Asia and Emerging Markets enjoy superior fundamentals compared to many developed markets, and they can offer opportunities for those with the stomach for risk and a medium-term horizon.

• First State Dividend Advantage (exposure to high-dividend yielding Asian equities)
• Abderdeen Pacific Equity Fund
• Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund

Bond funds
For prudent asset allocation, investors should always have some representation of bonds in their portfolios.

• LionGlobal Asia Bond Fund
• LionGlobal Emerging Markets Bond Fund
• Franklin Templeton Global Total Return Fund

Alternative Investment
Man AHL Trend SGD (a managed futures fund) has profited from trending markets and can help to stabilise portfolios.

Stocks to consider
For equity linked investments, we maintain last month's defensive stance and prefer Starhub and SingTel, given their strong cash balances and decent dividends.

For U.S. equities, we like Visa and Coca-Cola as these conglomerates have operations worldwide.

Currencies to consider
Heightened risk aversion weighed on the Australian and New Zealand dollars in September and these currencies now face resistance at US$1.03 and US$0.80 respectively, which were their previous support levels. Investors need to be very nimble as the tide could turn quickly and these currencies could rebound significantly if the situation in Europe improves and this helps to boost risk appetite.

Investors holding the Australian and New Zealand dollars may consider converting their holdings to the Singapore dollar at S$1.3000 and S$1.0500 respectively through Dual Currency Returns or via foreign exchange markets, especially if they are sitting on profits at these currency levels.

Elsewhere, the offshore Renminbi fell sharply against the US dollar in September, presenting an opportunity for holders of U.S. dollars to diversify into the offshore Renminbi. The Chinese currency has also posted gains versus the Singapore dollar and Singapore investors with a long-term horizon may want to consider the offshore Renminbi on slight pullbacks.

–	MICHAEL TAN
	Head, Premier Wealth Advisory, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Equities have been on a roller-coaster ride for more than two months. The sell-down, precipitated by fears over U.S. growth and the U.S. debt ceiling debate in late July, has given way to a period of extreme volatility driven by the news flow surrounding the European debt situation. Investors remain torn between wanting to preserve capital against a potential major financial crisis on one hand and picking up beaten-down stocks at attractive valuations.

On a top-down, tactical basis, we are slightly underweight equities and where mandates permit, we have also continued to maintain downside hedges.



The question being asked is no longer whether Greece will default in the near future but whether such a default will spark off a major financial system crisis. These increased risks warrant investor caution.

However, given the market correction and volatility that investors have endured, opportunities to add to investments in companies whose shares have been oversold are being presented, and we are taking advantage of this situation on a selective basis.

While no country or region is totally immune from the waves of negative sentiment, we continue to look for structural themes and specific catalysts among the markets.

We are overweight Asia on its strong macro fundamentals and long-term potential, and are positive on the China, Singapore and Thailand markets. Our preference for China is based on its healthy domestic growth prospects and diminishing concerns over inflation, and we favour Singapore because it is poised to benefit from the structural growth in Asia through tourism and wealth management. In Thailand, the impending implementation of populist measures and infrastructure plans by the new Government are potential catalysts for its stock market, which is cheap compared to its ASEAN peers.

Overall, we also favour a high dividend yield strategy that generally delivers a more stable stream of returns than the broader equity markets. This helps to mitigate the volatility of equity returns for investors with a long-term investment horizon.

–	SIMON FLOOD
	Chief Investment Officer, Lion Global Investors

» Read more about the wealth expert

The significant market swings in recent weeks may have left investors feeling that the volatility was unprecedented, compared to what's been experienced over the past two decades.

However, this is generally not the case, except for a few high profile events including the October 1987 market crash, the September 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre in New York, and more recently, the massive market sell-off in late 2008. Excluding these one-off events, the volatility experienced by markets in recent months has not been exceptional.

Despite relatively healthy economic and corporate fundamentals, the Singapore bourse has not been shielded from the volatility experienced elsewhere.

The uncertainties in the current environment are slightly different from the past, as problems were previously primarily confined to certain regions. This time round, we are seeing several unfavourable events taking place simultaneously throughout the world. This includes the weakening economic prospects and high unemployment in the United States, the sovereign debt crisis in peripheral Euro-zone economies that has cast a pall on European banks, rising inflation in Asia and political problems in the Middle East.

While corporate earnings from Singapore companies have been decent, investor confidence is still weak as there is still no solution in sight to the European debt situation. In the current environment, those looking to invest in markets should preferably adopt a more defensive stance.

While valuations for Singapore equities are not expensive, the prevailing caution and risk aversion among investors will continue to limit the upside for share prices in the short term. In fact, given the current headwinds, markets may even correct further.

To reduce downside risk, we suggest focusing on quality and defensive stocks. We are especially positive on the Telecommunications and Oil & Gas sectors.

Our preference is to pick companies that are market leaders with good earnings visibility and a good track record.



In fact, given the current headwinds, markets may even correct further.

To reduce downside risk, we suggest focusing on quality and defensive stocks. We are especially positive on the Telecommunications and Oil & Gas sectors. Our preference is to pick companies that are market leaders with good earnings visibility and a good track record.

Our preference is to pick companies that are market leaders with good earnings visibility and a good track record.

Some of our stock picks include Ascott Residence Trust, Biosensors International Group, CapitaMalls Asia, DBS Group, Golden Agri-Resources, Hyflux, Keppel Corporation, Midas Holdings, Raffles Medical Group, Sembcorp Marine, SingTel, StarHub and UOL Group.

–	CARMEN LEE
	Head, Investment Research, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

The Euro-zone debt crisis has turned into a banking crisis of sorts, leading major central banks to act in concert recently to pump U.S. dollars into the struggling financial system.

Reflecting the risk aversion, outflows from Emerging Market equities reached US$17 billion from the start of August this year to 21st September, of which US$10 billion came from Asia-Pacific excluding Japan.

The meltdown in financial markets has benefitted the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, which are perceived as the only safe-havens.

Concerns about the outlook for global economic growth, and the lack of fresh, coherent and coordinated policy measures from U.S. and European leaders to tackle daunting challenges, have affected investor confidence and contributed to market sell-off.

Given its concerns about the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve announced “Operation Twist” in late September, which involves reshuffling the central bank's US$2.8 trillion balance sheet by selling around US$400 billion of shorter-dated U.S. Treasury bonds to buy longer-dated ones. Unfortunately, the Fed's move has not helped to ease fears about a double-dip recession.

Meanwhile, market players are taking Euro-zone policymakers and the European Central Bank to task, for the delays to parliamentary ratification of the 21st July agreement among Euro-zone leaders on the second Greek rescue package and changes to the region's bailout fund. This increases the probability of the European Central Bank implementing more aggressive measures, possibly even cutting its current interest rate of 1.5 per cent, to ease concerns about the Euro-zone's debt situation.



Notably, central bank rhetoric is being toned down, despite still-elevated headline inflationary pressures in selected economies.

Asian central banks are faced with a trade-off between minimising downside risk to economic growth and reining in inflation. For instance, the governor of the Bank of Korea hinted that it will not prioritise inflation over growth as the current economic situation is very unstable.

Here in Singapore, the central bank will also have to decide in October whether it should adopt a more accommodative policy stance despite the high headline inflation rate. Chances are that the central bank is likely to adopt a more accommodative stance.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

G10 currencies have been battered in favour of the U.S. dollar due to heightened risk aversion emanating primarily from concerns about the European debt situation.

With no immediate resolution in sight, we expect currency markets to remain news-driven in the short term with any rebound in the Euro likely to be unsustainable, as Euro-zone leaders have been dragging their feet on finding a long-term solution to the region's problems. Expectations that the European Central Bank will take a dovish stance could also weigh on the Euro.

Any negative development on the global economic front could also cause risk appetite to deteriorate further, which could weigh on the growth/risk-sensitive currencies, while lending further support to the greenback.



However, for the medium term, we remain negative on the U.S. dollar, which could lose some shine when concerns about the Euro-zone's debt situation ease. The structural underpinning for the greenback remains weak and low long-term U.S. interest rates are likely to weigh on the currency once risk appetite returns.

On other fronts, Emerging Markets, including Asia, have been hard hit by the recent market volatility and the deterioration in risk appetite. Asian currencies, which did very well earlier this year, have seen a sharp pullback due in part to capital outflows.

Looking ahead, the deceleration in global economic growth is likely to cap the growth of Asia's current account surpluses and pace of reserve accumulation. Meanwhile, Asian central banks are also likely to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to address economic growth concerns. While we remain positive on Asian currencies for the medium term, regional currencies will have to increasingly rely on capital inflows to generate any potential outperformance against the U.S. dollar. Save for our still optimistic view of the Chinese currency, we expect other Asian currencies to remain vulnerable in the near term.

–	SELENA LING
	Head of Treasury Research & Strategy, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Highly volatile trading on financial markets over the past month have seen many investors taking flight to safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar on the back of growing concerns about the Euro-zone debt situation.

Oil prices fell on expectations that global fuel demand will falter amid signs of weaker economic growth in Europe, as well as the United States – the world's largest consumer of crude oil.

Copper prices tumbled to the lowest level in recent weeks and led a decline in base metals as concerns about the European situation persisted. Corn prices also declined, as investors reduced bets that prices will rise on concern that global economic growth may weaken and hurt commodity demand.

Gold prices, which surged to new highs of above US$1,900 per ounce in early September, also pulled back sharply to about US$1,600 per ounce in late September. Although gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, its price corrected because of the stronger U.S. dollar. The strong price gain posted by gold this year was another reason for investors to take profit on the precious metal, in order to cover losses incurred elsewhere due to the recent turbulence in financial markets.

Looking ahead, many market participants are speculating that Greece may default on its debts and that the contagion could spread to other larger Euro-zone countries like Italy and Spain.



Nevertheless, the medium- to long-term fundamentals for the commodity sector remain intact and sharp pullbacks in prices can offer an opportunity for the strong hearted to buy gradually on dips. In the case of gold, U.S. dollar strength may weigh on the precious metal in the short term. However, given our view that the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken in the medium term, we see gold price heading higher when the greenback reverses course and starts to weaken again.

–	VASU MENON
	Head, Content & Research, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

» Read more about the wealth expert

Any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified, and not those of OCBC Bank. The information provided herein is intended for general circulation and/or discussion purposes only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before you make any investment decision, please seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager regarding the suitability of any investment product. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from your OCBC Relationship Manager, you should carefully consider whether the product is suitable for you. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for any security or financial instrument or to enter into any transaction or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

A copy of the prospectus of the Fund(s) is available and may be obtained from the Fund Manager, or any of its approved distributors. Potential investors should read the prospectus for details on the Fund(s) before deciding whether to subscribe for or purchase units in the Fund(s). The value of the units in the Fund(s) and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Please refer to the prospectus of the Fund(s) for the name of the Fund Manager and investment objectives of the Fund(s).

OCBC Bank may have alliances with the product providers, for which OCBC Bank may receive a fee. Product providers may also be Related Persons, who may be receiving fees from investors. OCBC Bank and the Related Persons may also perform or seek to perform broking and other financial services for the product providers. OCBC Bank and its respective associated and connected corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report.

By purchasing Dual Currency Returns you are giving the issuer of this product the right to repay you at a future date in an alternate currency that is different from the currency in which your initial investment was made, regardless of whether you wish to be repaid in this currency at that time. Dual Currency Returns are subject to foreign exchange fluctuations which may affect the return of your investment. Exchange controls may also be applicable to the currencies your investment is linked to. You may incur a loss on your principal sum in comparison with the base amount initially invested.

Foreign currency investments or deposits are subject to inherent exchange rate fluctuations that may provide opportunities and risks. Earnings on foreign currency investments or deposits would be dependent on the exchanges rates prevalent at the time of their maturity if any conversion takes place. Exchange controls may be applicable from time to time to certain foreign currencies. Any pre-termination costs will be deducted from your deposit.

No representation or warranty whatsoever (including without limitation any representation or warranty as to accuracy, usefulness, adequacy, timeliness or completeness) in respect of any information (including without limitation any statement, figures, opinion, view or estimate) provided herein is given by OCBC Bank and it should not be relied upon as such. OCBC Bank does not undertake an obligation to update the information or to correct any inaccuracy that may become apparent at a later time. All information presented is subject to change without notice. OCBC Bank shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly howsoever in connection with or as a result of any person acting on any information provided herein. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward-looking statement regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Any reference to any specific company, financial product or asset class in whatever way is used for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on the same.

The contents hereof may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without OCBC Bank's written consent.